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Thursday, June 4, 2009

Its Hard to Sense P3 is Coming

Above 950 SPX, the last of the permabears will turn bullish. Then the jig will soon be up. With no more shorts to squeeze, all institutional buyers fully engaged, and retail (the few that feels like playing again) having jumped on board for this last little shindig, what choice will be there but for prices to go down?

I feel all comfy and warm watching the little bear rally waves chug-chug-chugging along. It is amazing that hanging around so many permabears for 1 year and now many of those same permabears are convinced its too early for P2 to end!

As if!

Get your bear suit back on!

SP50o is trading at a 4 qtr trailing P/E somewhere north of 60-65! At 986 it will likely be 70 or 75! Never has it ever been so high. Can you say parabolic?

Grow into earnings?

As if!

You think our F.I.R.E. economy that is hanging by a thread, in which we, as a nation, "DID a DOUBLED DOWN DARE of DEBT", will magically *bloom* into something else? When our largest manufacturing corporations just went belly up and the rest are old and creaky or out of country?

You think a 1.7T national debt per year won't ever have to be paid back and soon? You think we can get away with 2.7T next year?

When will the public outrage at corporate handouts start to come to a head?

At what point does the nation realize we are living in a National Ponzi Nightmare? I want to throw up when I think about it. Its like I am living in some zany cartoon....Are we nationally retarded?

Per EW guidelines, the next wave 2 should trace into the price range of the previous subwave 4. The previous subwave 4 price territory is between 742 low and 1007 high. We are at 940-ish pushing the last possible bit. Why would I assume it will go higher?

I no longer do because the waves are saying something. The (X) wave triangle meant a LOT. It means one more ABC pattern until a price retrace, whatever that is, is satisfactory. Its that simple. The theory is sound and works.

P2 has a sense of urgency. Why? Well, earning season is coming again! And we are already priced for boom times baby!

I'd love to see shorts squeezed one more time above 950. It will break most of the last of us permabears.

Remember fear didn't start correcting in March 2009, it started correcting back in November 2008 from peak. It has been subsiding ever since. From that standpoint we have had 7 months of declining fear from the peak.

And looking at it that way, maybe P3 truly is right around the corner.
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