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Monday, June 15, 2009


I usually have 3-4 things going on in my head (wave patterns) at a moment's notice on any potential wave structure. Sometimes I try and convey all that is up in my little noggin but that can confuse the non Elliott Wavers if I throw every little potential up there.

What is showing so far is that the move from 956 has perhaps completed 3 waves so far. 3 wave structures can be considered ABC so until the market makes another move lower than today's low, the jury is out.

In a well constructed impulse structures (in either direction) a nice subwave structure can be seen and channel lines develop. The move down from 956, although harsh is not clearly defined in its subwave structure. Its not the cleanest pattern I ever saw. However what is obvious is that there are 3 clear bigger waves so far; 1, 2, and 3 (or ABC)

But what if the market opens lower tomorrow and starts to move lower in a 5 wave pattern that gets sluggish and has ending diagonal characteristics where waves 1 and 4 overlap in price range? This would be a bullish reversal pattern.

So thats how my mind thinks in this instance if the market would open lower tomorrow and keep heading down a bit. I'm looking for wave 5 bottoms and a potential bullish reversal pattern.
It would probably be more bearish overall if the market traced higher first tomorrow and then started to sell off after a more proper wave 4 peak. This would match up with a more traditional channeling pattern such as the one I showed in tonight's update:

Of course the market can always produce impulse extensions in its wave structure and throw your *expectations* off. However I don't think this is a good spot for that to happen since the subwaves do not suggest it.
If today's low holds tight, then your looking at an ABC 5-3-5 pattern from peak.
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