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Sunday, July 12, 2009

Trendlines and Channels

UPDATE, 7PM Sunday: I don't have a "wave 3" down as my primary count. I was just making a comment that a few do have this has a wave 3 down. My comment is that *if* it was a wave 3 down, then it will be hitting its sweet spot soon with a hard down move coming soon. I don't have it as a wave 3 down. So far, I have the move from 931 peak as a 5-3-5 zigzag ending at 869. However the structure is not real clear so it remains to be seen if the market will have more downside and if so, how much more. I would think a backtest of the H&S in the 890's is coming first possibly a touch of 900. Then we'll see what things look like.

A lot of times I just like to chart trendlines and channels just to see whats going on or what not. A potential inverse head & shoulders is in play. Upper target 900 or slightly more. The H&S neckline is in the mid-890's. A backtest move up wouldn't be out of question. How that backtest (if it happens) goes will hold the key to the market.

If the 931 high was some kind of wave 2 peak, and the move off is a wave 3 of some sort, then the market potentially is right at its "third of a third" spot. This move would be a very hard down move coming early this week, likely Monday.

So one way or another the market will clue us further in.
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