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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

What happened to Green Shoots?

I like to use/read/watch Marketwatch as a source of headline-type news for sentiment and other odds and ends and even simple quick checks of the markets. They are hype site no doubt. Lots of bearish headlines in downturns.

I see no more 'green shoot' stories. They are quite enough bearish tonight.
The SPX bullish percent chart hit my RSI trendline support. So its a nice place for a bounce perhaps. Or always buyer beware! I like to point out stuff and let you decide. I of course have an opinion on things, that's why I do this.

Regardless, would you go "all in" at this stage for a short based on this chart? Or would you take your foot off the pedal a bit and maybe take some short profit? Would you open a short position with sentiment on this chart corrected low and sitting at RSI of less than 22?

Are you "all in" on a big H&S breakdown to 810 or so? All that support, all that buying from 800 on up will just get swept away?

Is P2 over?

Was Cramer bearish on tonight's show? If yes, that alone is something to chew on.

Here is something I like to watch on TOS futures charts with e-minis: If your bored at night or wake up and check the charts look at volume bars. Set the chart to 1 hour or even 15 minutes. Try different time scale settings. When the up volume (green bars) is greater than any pullback moves (red bars) then beware of shorting. When the red bars trumps the green bars in volume, think twice about trying to play a bounce.

Just throwing that tip out there. E-minis are always useful. They show a constant sentiment reading if you agree or not. Yeah they can be manipulated by certain entities, but those entities are human too and also exhibit sentiment.

The government can own 60% of the market but they cannot "control" 60% of the market. They can issue no "edict" to a fund manager in cash-strapped California to "hold" market shares. So he will sell when he feels the fear. Or he will buy when he feels the greed.

I don't sweat that stuff. In the end the market never lies. It may fool us for a long time (2003-2007) but it always comes back and reaps what man has sown.

Is there one more big summer rally left? Will we push the (false hope) envelope one more time?

Its fascinating stuff yes? I'm hooked.
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