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Monday, August 10, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 Aug

It looks like a zigzag down from the 1018 top. Since a zigzag is a valid corrective pattern, The market could, in theory make yet another run for a new high. However I don't have a good clue on how another run for a new high would fit into the overall wave pattern unless its a (b) wave up of an expanded flat and 1018 represents the true top of Minor wave A (which it very well may).

As of now I have Minor A ending a bit earlier and the market is in an expanding triangle. This would imply that another zigzag down to (e) is coming. The pattern the e-minis are forming, all hours, also suggests more down may be coming.

But I am not real confident of anything at the moment. I was certain the waves pointed down for today and I was correct. The move off of 1018 completed a valid zigzag pattern. Not as bearish as I thought but not unexpected due to the nature of P2 and where we are at in the overall rally.

Now we just have to wait and see whats in store. Things are still very bullish and the dip buyers keep plugging away.

Overall though I maintain, on balance, a bearish stance for the medium term and that a Minor B wave is playing out in some form or fashion.

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