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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Recession "Ends". Sell-The-News Possibility

I have been thinking about what Erik said recently about P2 topping on the GDP reports for third quarter. I believe he was talking about a few weeks/months from now. However running across this tidbit got me thinking again about tomorrow's scheduled revised GDP numbers for Quarter 2.

If they "surprise" announce that we actually ended the "recession" this past quarter, this could spark bullish futures (after a volatile whipsaw or two). Then the market would gap way up and hit its peak rather quickly and then you see a very big "sell-the-news" event indeed.

Persistent. Dropping. Selling. Market finishes under 1000 for the day. And continues down for another week to 950. Then my shorts would be good. I can dream can't I?

Of course the opposite --- some kind of freak extended wave [v] - could happen. But don't bet on it because most people invested in the market have likely already counted on "economic recovery" happening. Tomorrow's "good news" may only bring confused pain. The best thing the bulls can hope for is more bad news I guess.

I don't really track news and announcements so if I got this wrong (if there is not a revised GDP report tomorrow), please excuse my error.

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