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Friday, October 30, 2009

The Dollar Charts

If the indexes rally this week in a Minute wave [ii], how would the dollar fit into the scheme of that?

Well check out my charts, they answer that question. Some new Monday highs for UUP ina quick burst (supporting early market weakness) and then it gets chopped down for the rest of the week in a 5 wave move down which should be a c wave of an expanded flat fulfilling a Minute [ii] correction. While the dollar gets chopped down, the markets rally.

Simple huh?

Its almost too perfect of a scenario which is why I am suspicious of even my own humble charts.

But one thing is for sure - The dollar impulsed up as you can see on my UUP....

SPX Squiggles

EDIT: There is also a decent chance the Friday low was the Minute [i] low and that Monday we rally. The end squiggles can be subjective. However they say that Mondays usually follow through, at least somewhat, from the previous Friday. Not always of course.

I have been using the EWI method of base, acceleration and deceleration channels when charting squiggles and such. Surprisingly, I think it worked out even in this move down today.

I think studying squiggles is useful in situations such as we had today. It helps identify where a high probability turn is coming.

For instance those who say we are going to crash very hard Monday wouldn't necessarily say that if viewing these wave structures subjectively using the methods of channeling as I have done here.

Impulse waves moving in the same direction as the larger degree primary trend can be powerful to chart and yield better results more often than impulse waves moving against the primary trend of which P2 was one big corrective waveform.

Correctives can mutate in many complex ways, but impulses are fairly straightforward. Hence P2 was not an easy slog when charting squiggles.....

We'll see Monday...

Bears Eager to Jump On? Hold on a sec

Wave [ii]'s fresh from a market top are typically fighting affairs for the bulls/bears. Wave 2's of any degree often take the form of zigzag sharp rally and often can take away any profits you held for wave [i] down.

According to Elliott Wave Principle, Key to Market Behavior, (Frost/Prechter):

"Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. At this point investors are thoroughly convinced the bull market is back to stay".

The above was certainly true for Primary wave [2] huh? Well this attending psychology can be evident even at Minute wave degrees.

My chart projects a "typical" wave [ii]. Will it occur this way? I have no crystal ball. But all we can do is play and chart the probabilities and see where things fall into place and adjust accordingly.

As my daily update shows, the market has certain indicators that are deeply oversold. A wave 2 is meant to relieve this condition. Wave 2's are allowed to trace 99% of wave 1! But typically between 47-62% is the accepted normal. For instance the open chart gap down on today's open is a juicy target as wave 2's often retrace back toward the apex of the previous subwave 4 as a guideline. Then the "real" breakaway gap would occur on the eventual Minute [iii].

Also see Kenny's excellent work for the VIX and such as there is no need for me to repeat what he has laid out:

A Head and Shoulder formation, is of course, a naturally occurring EW pattern. It is formed by the previous wave 3 up peak (left shoulder) , the market top (Head) and a wave 2 retrace (Right shoulder). 1018-1030 has good support. I wouldn't count on the bulls exiting the party just yet. That will surely come down the road but for now, many may be thinking this is the perfect time to "buy the dip". After all, market tops usually don't die a quick death so easily.

A Fibonacci time ratio also suggest since the decline took 8-9 days (assuming it bottoms shortly Monday), look for a 3-5 day wave 2 rally. FOMC meeting this week, that's a good excuse to rally I suppose.

The market powered up in primary wave 2 and the bulls were in charge. Now the bears have wrestled a trend change. We happen to think this trend change will be a major change (P3) in a wave that is supposed to be the worst carnage in the modern history of mankind.

The psychology will probably start to shift a bit. No longer will they be so easy going and assured of things. This week we should see our first flashes of "hope" and it will likely again be tied to the FED.

Hope they rescue this guy (Citadel?)! Hope they don't pull liquidity! Hope they can unwind safely. Blah blah blah.

The FED cannot control social mood. They cannot stop the fear. In fact they themselves are subject to these same emotions.

One last point is that bears were generally at maximum giddiness today. That fact alone may be signalling we are near the end of the Minute [i] wave. Many probably cannot wait to jump on the bandwagon or already did sometime today and are holding eagerly. Wave 2's, especially if its more persistent than we anticipate, can be a bitch.

As I said, due diligence is required. I may be wrong and the market will go even more down next week more than I anticipated. I certainly don't want to shake anyone needlessly out of their positions. Sometimes if your short the right stock or even index it won't matter.

We'll know early Monday. Keep an eye on internals.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 October (Updated Fri - 6pm)

UPDATE (Friday - 6PM) - I added a chart covering market internals. It supports the notion of a relief rally early next week perhaps after early Monday weakness. The Monday weakness could last a while or be quick as I suggest. Or Minute [i] could have ended today.

There are clear positive divergences on the daily tick and McClellan's. And after two 90% down days this week, stocks will probably find some near term support at 918 - 927 [EDIT: 1027-1030 seems like decent support] or somewhere in there. The volume and advancers ratio may need a breather.

But dip buyer beware, there has been a trend change so predicting temp bottoms is more an art than science. P1 proved that mightily.

I didn't know there was an FOMC meeting next week until I read it on EWI's site. It makes sense the decline performs a relief rally for a few days and again allows oversold conditions to work itself out and consolidate for the next big wave [iii] leg down.

In addition, after taking 8-9 days to complete Minute [i] (if thats what it is) a 3-5 day relief rally for a Minute [ii] would certainly be within the realm of normal.

I used the Wilshire 5000 to get a better read on the subwaves. I made some slight adjustments but I think it works kind of nice. I remade the wave (iii) internals and was amazed at how they connected on trendlines so it could be correct.

I had to change the pink (ii) to a flat to satisfy the guidelines of alternation. Its not going to work on each secondary index as well but thats not important. The Wilshire makes the best waves, its 5000 stocks...

I am assuming some early Monday weakness followed by another relief rally for Minute wave [ii] , this one likely more muted in strength and breadth and taking longer than 1 day. 50% or more Fib is the target.

The Bears are used to this Game

Don't know if its over yet, but this count works pretty well.
It may not be over, and we may not even have the wave degrees or maybe this is a series of 1-2, 1-2, but regardless, its officially a 5 wave move down off the top and thats all that matters.

Trying to work it back toward the pivot.

Bulls are trying to form the inverse head and shoulder routine with a near-term target of 1091 sometime next week likely. Its almost a foregone conclusion they will succeed huh?

If bears are serious, they need to break the bulls right here and now and today and close it under 1052. A break out of the channel and backtest will power it higher.

Battle for the channel.

One thing about that bottom yesterday was that the MACD and stochs on this chart bottomed along with prices. Usually for P2, the e-minis, all-hours, telegraphs its turns a bit more with some kind of positive divergences at these price lows. Even the 15 minute charts lacked anything.

This was also pretty much true with all the cash index charts except I think the 5 minute chart which is a pretty quick chart.

What does it mean? Well it just goes to show you don't need much divergences to turn. Which means there is still a chance this thing breaks downward today at a moment's notice.

Today is all about support/resistance and how much conviction the bulls have about pushing prices up yet again through resistance. The bears are used to this reversal game. And you know what they say about when things become a "norm" is just when it no longer works.

So this is all about if all these big pockets of "buying climaxes" were bullshit or not or if there will be a lot more. Soon they will run out of stocks to push up.

I am still looking for a close under the 20 month MA of 1052 or so today. I think there will be a fight on a Friday. Could be a choppy day.
Anyways this is posted a bit early have to go to work early, just some random thoughts.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 October

I decided to show my alternate count on my SPX chart. And that would be a Minute wave [i] low.

Everyone suspected the market would bounce today because it was deeply oversold on the McClellan's Oscillator to the upper channel. I had an arrow painted on 1063 and it complied nicely! But geez, almost a 9-1 up day would require yet another immediate reversal tomorrow for the bears to get a grip back on this market.

The market finished at the channel. But of course it did. And of course GDP exactly matched the 3.5% "expectations" (they'll revise lower down the road) And of course the DOW printed exactly 200 points (I knew it would). And of course it was nearly a 9-1 up volume ratio day. And of course the banks bounced well over 3% on POMO day...

(I actually played the oversold bounce when I saw opening up volume ratio so I ain't complainin!..)

Now that I got that out of the way, I'd say unless the market reverses shortly tomorrow, then we may be looking at a Head and Shoulders Minute wave [ii] forming. That would mean a deep, at least a 62%, retrace back toward 1101. Somewhere it will run into resistance (1080?) and get stopped. Perhaps a big backtest on trying to get into the rising trendline again (which can be argued was a backtest today and parked right at it).

So the wave options are:

1) Minuette (iv) is peaking and market will reverse tomorrow and head back down. Monday will likely make new lows?

2) Up day tomorrow (or some consolidation) after some higher highs as part of a Minute wave [ii] bounce to form a H&S peak sometime next week.

3) This was a reversal that will bring about new highs in some of the indexes, but not all. That would leave many intra-market negative divergences.

4) They drive the market up to 1121 or 1158 on some desperation move to constantly stay above the rising trendline and then the mother of all black swans explodes the market under its own dead weight.

(hehe I just playing with that last one)

I am leaning heavily toward option 2 if option 1 proves a failure. Then Option 3 makes sense.

Which means its probably option 4.


Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Bear Market P1 and P2

The daily SPX chart is an awesome Elliott wave pattern for both Primary wave 1 down and Primary wave 2 up.

The double negative daily divergence and also the weekly negative divergence are serious sell clues that are all around us and should be alerting us to the fact that P3 is likely underway.

The rising trendline has broken. The big bear line was kissed for a third time nearly perfectly. The 1099 gap was closed. Are there more bull targets? Isn't there evidence of stocks going from strong hands to weak? Even Bill Gross dumped all his crap and then announced it proudly. Smart man.

It really doesn't need to get more complicated than these 2 charts.

Will P2 make a new high? It might but in my estimation not before it experiences yet another Intermediate sized wave correction. And that correction should take, at a minimum, a few weeks. But don't count on it. The larger "ABC" look as been fulfilled for P2.

Not only does the EW pattern fit and look very nice. The technicals are now aligned with a major market top (weekly divergence can be a kiss of death)

There really is a lot of overhead paper starting to come out. And there is a lot of resistance just overhead of us.

For an immediate reversal to new P2 highs, the market is going to need at least a 10-1 volume ratio or greater up day. Perhaps tomorrow is a good reason for it to do so, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

But even if it did reverse magically back to 1101, say to 1105 or 1120, wouldn't you feel the need to short the damn thing again (so why would the market comply with that move?) I think 1060 is going to be very tough to retake and hold as support. Let alone, 1072-1075 and then 1096-1101.

The trend is changing. And the next primary wave down is potentially a world game-changing event.

Am I calling P2 top? Not necessarily but I'll leave my charts labeled just the way they are anyways until proven otherwise. I can see at least an intermediate-sized wave (red) correction occurring. And those take more than a few days and more than 5-6%.

I'll be looking down just as much as up, especially tomorrow as there are potential very bearish 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 counts going on and it might soon be ready to bust the DOW over the head...

P3 will produce carnage. If everyone decides they have had enough and they set the auto-bot computers to full sell mode, we could be looking at a mini-black swan or two.

Baidu Again

BIDU target: About $406. I have it charted as a possible 62% wave [ii] retrace zigzag or double zigzag, take your pick.

BIDU should not be making new highs (under ending diagonal rules it wouldn't make sense) and therefore I have no reason to believe it will close its gap.

Lots of confluence of targets match right around the $405 - $406 area particularly the 20DMA

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 October

Lots of indexes are breaking down. Banks and transports aren't faring well. The qqqq's are starting to really tumble. Fear is picking up. The rising trendlines are broken.

If a "GDP day rally" is to take place, backtesting the big rising trendlines from the March low would be a good target for starters. On the SPX thats at about 1060-1062. Big resistance has now start to set in at 1060. Even bigger at 1072-1075.

Guessing when bullish bounces will occur on P3 will be just as hard as trying to guess bear declines on P2.

The SPX closed well under the 50DMA. Bearish and indicating an intermediate trend change.

Some quirks to be sure. BIDU bullish again today and AMAZON held up well. Seems AMZN wants that $130+ target? These 2 stocks are no doubt being eyeballed by many a trader expecting declines so of course they will not. But perhaps they are laggards....

Apple is closing its gap up and likely peaked at $208. Visa had a nice day. Earnings season is not yet over but almost.


The FTSE 100 made a clear 5 wave move from its very tippy top. So that is very encouraging for bears.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Inflection Point

I posted the DOW's rising bear trendline chart:

The DOW is in log scale, the SPX and NASDAQ are not. The daily dipped beneath 50 RSI on both the SPX (48.55) and Nasdaq (47.91). The DOW remains elevated at 52.46.

All three indexes have hit important trendlines although it can be said that the NASDAQ has already cliff-jumped over its main bear rising trendline.

The SPX monthly shows that bears want a close on Friday below the 20 month Moving Average of 1053. A close above the 20 month MA would be further evidence that will be sited by many technical analysis types that a new bull trend is at hand.

I will say this though: The typical TA could very well fail horribly on P3.

Either way, something big will happen shortly. A massive suicidal jump over the trendlines would be a good start for the bears.

And yet here we sit parked on these major rising trendlines and the popular McClellan's oscillator is the most oversold all of P2 yet we are merely 40 points from the top? Weird? Conspiracy? Beats me.

But expect the unexpected....

As if I needed to remind anyone of that

McClellan's and SPX Hourly

The McClellan's is very low and it can be said the market is due for a bounce just based on this. However when you look at the hourly charts on the SPX, there were no solid buy signals even close to be generated just yet nor positive divergence to hang your hat on. Nor is the RSI even yet oversold on the hourly. Not that it has to be....

So tomorrow will be very revealing to the wave structure.

I keep thinking we'll get a "GDP pre rally" right out of the gate and that my squiggle triangle is actually a market bottoming regrouping effort.

One other thing is that 1060 is gap support. Holding this support versus not holding this support is likely very important to the market. 1060 is an important level to the near term bullish/bearish case.

If we do head down to close the 1060 gap, I like 1052 as a near term bottom due to Fibonacci relationships.

Anyways, I ramble...

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 October

Some observations:

1) The market now has 1072 resistance overhead. They couldn't trigger a short squeeze because likely the shorts were timid and there was nothing to squeeze to help power things.

2) If tomorrow is a "thrust" down out of a triangle then shorts would likely finally jump on it. Only to be reversed. Any gap downs tomorrow I would bet get covered.

4) The focus is on the GDP report this week and is no doubt on a lot of people's minds. Bull's savior or curse?

5) DOW is squatting on its log scale trendline. The NASDAQ played catch-up to the downside today. It cannot be said that the NASDAQ remains "strong" as it dropped 1.20% versus a green DOW. Very unusual and it seems to have to do with the DOW holding its trendline. Weird. The market thinks that chart is important. More evidence of a fractured market. (or manipulated heh)

In the end, I am taking best guesses at the wave structure. The market is not too too oversold just yet (well McClellan's is), so an early thrust down that would get the bears to pile in finally would likely reverse.

But it could head up just as well. The squiggles are a bit mushy. On the other hand, traders are wary of going short because of GDP Thursday. And yet the market dribbles downward....

The market rarely and magically gets back to a position just so you can "go long" or "go short" for a nice big swing trade. It does sometimes eventually but usually through a circuitous route.
Even with sound plan, emotions lay waste a great plan.

Its grinding both sides I think at the moment.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Amazon Targets

I show Amazon as a possible thrust up out of an ascending triangle. That could indicate an exhaustion gap up that will reverse soon enough. I wouldn't necessarily count on it though. However it would explain a reversal. If it traces sideways and consolidates for a while, it would probably be a wave 4. How much support is above here and for how long it lasts is anyone's guess.

The price highs of waves (1) (3) and (5) typically connect on a channel line in an EW pattern. The price lows of a (2) and (4) wave should also connect in the same parallel channel. My first chart may have nailed that channel.

Amazon is not an easy read, but my charts look nice. Both charts together show 2 separate lines that, if hit, will have fulfilled 2 converging targets. That makes for a powerful target.


This squiggle chart is just a guess. There really isn't enough evidence to piece together anything solid.

However a few structures stand out:

1) Perhaps today's opening run-up was a [C] wave of a wave ii peak in an expanded flat. Because after that, we had some hard impulse selling downwards.

2) It looks like an ED wedge at the end of today so I'll label it as such. That would imply a rebound opening to at least backtest my blue neckline perhaps.

3) The mini "third of a third" intraday gap down stands out pretty well.

But overall, if its not a series of 1's and 2's as I have here, and it is all corrective in nature from 1101, its going to be one hellava rebound to get above 1100 again and the overhead resistance.

Baidu Ending Diagonal

As I shown over the weekend, BIDU wasn't likely to go the way of Apple and AMZN due to the apparent Ending Diagonal formation.

I played this chart today and bought only my second options ever. $300 Nov out-of-the-money puts for $.30. It hit $375 in A/H's and dribbling down. Since I am no option master, I have no idea what they would fetch tomorrow if its does sell under $400.

My first options? AMZN a few weeks back, and that didn't turn out too well heh.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 October

EDIT: 7:30 PM: Of course if the dollar has bottomed, you can guesstimate that oil and gold may have already peaked too.

The dollar is the story today. It appears to have finished a 5th wave wedge of a 5th wave of a C wave down. Big green volume bar as you can see. There is more work to be done and a couple of more hurdles to clear to be sure as you can see some other prominent lines that have yet to be challenged. But its a good start.

The markets opened rather strong as we suspected over the weekend. But the triangle effort failed as the market drove down beneath 1070 on a subsequent reversal. Not surprising as the triangle looked too steep in its legs and kind of retarded at that point.

However there were bullish friskiness in certain stocks. AMZN keeps running and may hit that $130 mark at this rate. The NASDAQ only finished .59% lower.

The waves are overlapping indeed but the squiggles reveals strong 5 waves structures heading down if you look at them under a 1 minute chart. So the obvious question is the market forming a series of 1's and 2's waves down? If so, then we would expect even further downside before the week is out. Any big time rebounds back up in the indexes may depend on how much they can beat the dollar back into submission I suppose.

In any event the market seems a bit fractured which would happen at a major top. Eventually when the primary trend of "down" takes complete hold over all the indexes, a majority of stocks will also head down. Thats when you start to get 90%+ down days.

I plotted a potential Head & Shoulders on my SPX 30 minute chart. For those who will say its looks sucky as a H&S I will say those are the ones that usually work. I drew a lot of lines all over the place just to see what hits.

Dow Trendline hit

Again, I think the DOW and its log scale trendline is a key.


Sunday, October 25, 2009

Oil, Dollar, Gold, Sentiment, etc.

Oil looks to have one more Minute wave to a high. I can see about $85 where [v] = [i]. Coincidence that oil seems to be peaking on the week that the Oil Corporations report? Either way, as others have mentioned, there is a point where high oil costs begin to be seriously counter-productive to the overall recovery effort. Also nothing turns social mood more than high gas prices which will surely follow.
The dollar just keep dribbling on down. I still expect a final "panic sell" spike but it doesn't have to be. Regardless it is tough to tell how much more it needs to drop. Certainly the falling dollar has caught major media and political attention lately. However sentiment is not yet quite a bearish extreme. So the jury is out.
Gold also seems to be consolidating for a move higher. Like oil, I show a Minute [v] due to go higher at the least. This will probably be in response to further dollar weakness I suspect.
The CPC's 10 day average would be nice if it closed the lowest on this chart. This also does not have to be. I merely want to point out that if it does close the lowest under .77, then it would be evidence that the trade has become as "one-sided" as during any time during the past many years.

I didn't show the VIX chart as Kenny beat me to the punch and I agree with his analysis completely on both the short VIX squiggles and weekly found in this post. And that suggest probably the VIX hasn't yet bottomed.

I generally am ok with my SPX chart I showed from Friday. I am willing to adjust on the fly, its about all we can do.

But it seems to show a muddled topping process (and possible last squiggle triangle) as I have suggested as like what happened at the end of the (A) wave. But like EWI and Kenny mentioned, the "buying climaxes" suggest a topping process more than a consolidation move.

I generally don't see the market making much more of a new high than it already has. But I am a biased short so I have to be willing to see things for what they are, not what I want them to be. For instance I can see a squirt above 1101 to maybe 1105 or a bit more, but I am not sure it can run to the 50% retrace spot at 1121 or heaven forbid, 1158 or more. (But if any wave can do it, it will be P2)

But there is good reasoning for my thoughts about this because, I am just guessing here, it would take strong market internals I think to make a move much above 1100. And that wouldn't match perhaps too much with a "rolling top" occurring nearer the 1100 level as I am suggesting is happening. A blowoff top? I cannot be certain. Many indexes seem "done" or close to it. Many have shown reversals on their weeklies.

I think overall when you look at the underlying fundamentals (7 bank closures this weekend for instance, record debt, housing, unemployment, etc), investor sentiment (reaching higher than at any time in past years), and market value (high P/E ratios), one has to think the risk/reward favors at the very least, a serious trimming of any long gains made during this rally.

Particularly when the primary count for the long term waves going back hundreds of years predicts the most crippling downside move ever to occur in the market's history.

As Erik of suggested several times in months past in comments that the day they announce the 3rd quarter GDP is the day the market tops for good. The ultimate "sell the news" event. UK had a surprising negative GDP so there is nothing certain. In fact, its almost as if the market was waiting just for that very day to occur before deciding what to do.

The consensus estimates are around 3.2% which is a pretty good clip. You can look at it several ways:

1) GDP comes in at a surprise upside number more than 4%. This would setup an "expectation" that the market is absolutely going to soar from that or that any downside will be limited. But perhaps it does the opposite after a pop. This "great news" will keep investors generally bullish on any price decline. And that will help defeat the "Wall of Worry" and allow prices to truly decline.

It may even allow, dare I say, a "Black Swan" event.

2) GDP comes in way lower than expected (less than 3%) and the market sees the reality of the situation and sells off.

What do I think? I don't worry about "news" too much as you can see from above how impossible it is to predict market moves based only on "news". Read one of my first posts for more on how I feel about news.

So you can see, I can "fit" the news story no matter how things turn out. You can bet the media will and you can bet they will have to change a headline or 2 along the way because the changing market situation will force them to change their "narratives".

The wave structure and TA suggest downside is not far away and that a distributive, "rolling top" near the 1100 level is occurring. It is likely to be muddled and shake out a lot of traders including bears out of their positions as has likely already happened a bit last week.

Good luck this week!

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Weekly qqqq's

You can use a ruler to make money. The qqqq's have a very tight, almost unbroken rally from the March time period. Its an "up or die" mentality almost and indeed some zaniness of not only the 2007 top but the 2000 top is coming back into play.

I won't underestimate the qqqq's. They are hot and the public is buying the big corporate stocks that make up the Nasdaq 100 as they are drawn back into the market.

Apple and Amazon making new all time highs. So there is little resistance to hold back prices although Apple does have some drag on it. Justified? It matters not. Neither pays a dividend.

Apple hoards their cash. Eventually people will resent having to pay premium prices. And eventually Apple will reach a certain market saturation point. Who doesn't have an IPOD or 2 or 3? Cash-rich companies often are inviting targets for government bureaucrats.

Amazon has an insane P/E and everyone knows it. Which is why it will probably continue to trade higher to the $130's. Its cleared itself of resistance and Joe Q. Public is likely jumping on board.

So I can see a turn in the qqqq's coming but the short term noise will be hard to see the trees.

At any rate, until this rising trendline is broken, one can never be sure...

Setting Apple's Target

I always enjoy charting highly liquid stocks such as Apple and such. They emit strong Elliott Wave patterns. These highly popular stocks is what the public buys and these are hard to manipulate. So the patterns often stand out at certain points.

I have heard advice that daytraders should generally limit themselves to a short list of stocks so they become familiar with them. Indeed one could trade a stock like Apple back and forth with some tight discipline and do very well.

Third waves are usually easy to spot. Usually being the strongest waves, they help identify a wave structure.

I have been using the concept of base, acceleration, and deceleration channels for a bit now in setting targets. Apple seems to be on a sharp wave (iv) retrace that should, in theory find support at its previous subwave iv which is also gap support.

Once that holds, it merely a matter of counting another 5 waves up until the next turn. And since I show this as a potential "top" in Apple, catching the this particular turn could prove to be profitable.

Indeed, psychologically speaking, Apple is at the "top of its game" and every analyst sees nothing but great things as far as the eye can see....

Indeed I'll have all 5 charts on my public chartlist. It will be fun to follow to see if it all comes true.