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Monday, October 5, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 October

Now comes the VIX test. The fear test. The VIX, after having closed outside above its BB for 2 days has now got hammered back inside. This is the trigger for a potential bullish market move. In P2 it has worked well indeed. But if we are truly in P3, it shouldn't work as well.

Market internals were very bullish today at a 9 to 1 up ratio volume. However total volume was low compared to the selling down days of late (but does that matter?). There is an open chart gap at 1054.91 to 1057.08. Its a big bull target. Today also gapped up and did not quite cover although its less than a point.

If the market breaks above 1045, then its not a wave 4. Its likely a series of 1's and 2's tracing from the 1080 high. Today was supposed to be a bounce day and it bounced indeed. qqqq's were lame though.

Down channel upper line to be tested tomorrow.

I don't have anything good for bears just yet. So far the market has traced what is best counted as a 3 wave zigzag down from 1080 to 1019. Three waves is corrective. Until we get a new low under 1019 before a new high above 1069, it's not a 5 wave move and P3 cannot be truly confirmed.

So thats the trading range for now. 1019 - 1069. Whichever breaks first is what matters. And the market closed squarely between those 2 targets. My primary count has the market breaking under 1019 and 1069 will not be broken.

This is really where due diligence comes into play. Good Luck.

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