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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 November

Seems like some wave iv's or (iv)'s or [iv]'s are playing out. The uptrend is slowing but the zizags intraday appear to be triangle waves perhaps. I'm sure they'll goose the futures to clear 1095 resistance and such. I show the wilshire again tonight because looking at 5000 stocks you realize it still has some work cut out to make a new high whereas the SPX is close and the DOW of course is loose on the run.

The question is, how high will the current uptrend leg go? Will we see new highs tomorrow on the SPX? (I think its a very good chance - I can see them working the futures as we speak)

The next logical question is what happens when the near term uptrend tops?

Will it be a major top? Or merely an "A" wave of a third zigzag?
(This depends on how high this current uptrend from 1029 can get - fail to make 1120 on this uptrend, and I would think its a major top)

Today looked consolidating but it wasn't that impressive however it did manage to hold key supports today (as expected) and now it can have a crack at the 1101 high. A "kickoff" of another zigzag that I was pondering last night is still a possibility. But tomorrow is going to have to continue the gains across the board for that to happen. For this to be another zigzag, it probably needs to keep an uptrend going until 1120 or so in my estimation to be able to trace an effective B wave pullback.

At the moment the large down line from the OCT 2007 top is coming into true focus at its extremes. How it handles this will answer if another high is THE top or not. Perhaps the market merely wants to touch this line in a perfect intraday high fashion and say goodbye.

So I'll wait another day and see how this trend line interacts with the SPX and see what internals bring tomorrow. You can see on my daily chart I merely moved the numbers around a bit. What else can you do you know?

If this mini-uptrend does not achieve about 1120, then I would say the market is topping.

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