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Monday, January 25, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 January [Update 10:00PM EST]

[Update 10:00 PM: Final chart for tonight. This is the 1930 rally and see how it also broke the rising trendline and popped outside the bollinger bands (red box on chart). It then slipped back inside and then you can see one whole day where it completely gapped outside at the bottom (blue box). And this was right off the rally high.

What really catches your eye is that it only took the market about 1/3rd the time it took to rally to get back toward the market lows of 1929. That would imply in less than 3 months time, we could be sub-900 SPX. Thats the potential power of P3 - The Ponzi wave]

[Update 9:45PM: This chart below shows that the BB is widening which is what this wave [i] is supposed to do: set up wave [iii].  The 50 DMA spot also seems like an obvious bull target.  I threw this "gee whiz" chart up here just to show anyone new to EW theory that there is a potential drop coming that would be consistent with wave theory projections etc. This is why we count squiggles and look for every edge we can get... what amazes me is how much and how fast wave [i] dropped  - if thats what it is of course...]

[Update 8:50 PM: Hopefully the market will give us a new low tomorrow.  A straight-up look at support/resistance shows that a natural bottom for Minute [i] would be somewhere in the 1080's.  Then a swift retrace to the 1115 area. This would fulfill the "retrace to price peak of ii of (v)" and fulfill the initial target for a swift rebound post an extended wave (v). This is also where the 50DMA resides at the moment.

I also show perhaps if a swift rebound to 1115 results in a rejection back down, perhaps Minute [ii] traces a flat of some kind.  I show this only to get you thinking about how these things can play out. The squiggles and TA would give us clues in any case.  Why would the Minute [ii] trace a flat? Well perhaps time would be a factor. If there was a swift retrace to 1115 and then hard rejection, perhaps there would simply be a need for more time for a Minute [ii] to occur. Call it the "bulls refuse to quit buying dips" wave. But that is getting ahead of things too far obviously.  But it would set up a nice double shoulder pattern.

The 1115-1122 area I think represents a huge challenge for the SPX as you can see on this chart, it will be hard to press past that area.  I also don't count on the SPX rallying or closing above 1121-1122 as this is the 50% market retrace spot and I think might hold significance. However, the next obvious layer is at the 1130 spot.

[Update 7:10 PM: Souljester in comments pointed an observation in the EWI tutorial about 5th wave extensions. If this is a 5th wave extension, then we can expect a swift retrace rally to the wave ii price peak of 1114.95. Also the 1116.48 SPX gap which resides right near the wave ii price peak and is also heavy horizontal resistance.

The surge this morning was indicative perhaps of eager dip buyers who were then tempered as if knowing that the market required one more wave down.

If the SPX made a new low, and this pattern is correct, it might be a very good call buying opportunity.  As you can see, a break over the sharp down channel would probably relieve the down pressure and a sharp rally would ensue.  I will then be entering an aggressive short at 1114-1116 area (as long as we get a new low on the indexes tomorrow). For after the retrace, a wave [iii] of immense proportions down perhaps is right around the corner.

The upper retrace target area is the upper blue box area. But it has to chew through 1114-1121 resistance to get there.

Out of all the counts I like this best for now. However, the NASDAQ and such doesn't work as well]

[Update 5:50PM: Here is the SPX hourly chart. A marginal new low tomorrow somewhere in the 1080's  catching both horizontal and trendline support. would create positive divergence on the RSI and MACD which could indicate a turn is coming. The more aggressive count has the SPX heading much further down.  So we just have to see. ]

[Update 5:35 PM: The RUT and the qqqq's need at least one more wave down to consider the entire thing an impulse pattern.  We may get more than that.  If where the RED [1] price pivot is breached prior to any new low being made, its not an absolute count-wrecker, but it sure would be problematic.]

That is pretty much the case with the entire market. If that equivalent pivot (where I have black wave i marked on the SPX and DJIA) gets broken before new lows occurs, then its just complicates things. I don't expect it to.

[Update 4:30 PM: The DJIA pretty much is in sync with the SPX as far as counts go.

Today appeared to be a wave iv kind of sideways day.  There now appears to be a channel.  After some mulling over, the wave (v) might be the extended wave for the SPX. However it requires one more low to confirm the overall pattern and that should be tomorrow if my count is correct.

This is the conservative down count. The more aggressive is shown with the ALTernates on the chart.

I'll throw some more counts out on other stuff in a bit.
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