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Monday, May 17, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 May [Update 8PM]

[Update 8PM: If we are looking for an a-b-c up, at the least, to form a wave (ii), then here is a shot at the squiggles based on time factors and retrace factors. There exists a rare gap down (rare because of the way the Wilshire's price moves are recorded) on the print of the Wilshire5000 where I place a blue arrow that may be a target. It conveniently resides at the 61.8% Fib retrace marker.

Well we'll see. Either this chart looks totally foolish or will generally be the path for prices.  There is no hiding when you chart big squiggle patterns....]

[Update 7:18PM: From a simple technical perspective using a 30 minute chart which seems the appropriately sized chart for the moves involved, there was a great positive divergence at today's low which foretold of the late day bounce to come. When one looks at this chart, one can easily imagine that the divergence has yet to hit its "payoff" spot and hence it may have more upside to go in price ultimately before wave pink (ii) is done.

We are looking for at least an a-b-c move up likely in zigzag form,  or a 5 wave move to form the true price top of Minor wave 2. Since the move down from where blue 2 is marked probably counts best as a 5 wave move  an a-b-c- up would be primary count.

At the least, one could look for the beginnings of a negative divergence perhaps not on the 30 minute chart but at least the 15 minute chart might be the ticket to indicate that another bout of selling is coming and wave (ii) of [i] of 3 has topped. I will be using the 15 minute chart to get some clues and look for negative divergences.

One last point is the NYMO had hardly any change today and is still on the oversold side at minus 64. Some say that a small move in the NYMO foretells a large move to come in the NYMO, direction unclear. So that tidbit combined with this chart below, it may point to a big move to the upside.

Resistance is at 1138 which is where the market finished and if that breaks, 1155 could be a target although there is certainly smaller resistance levels under that.

So interesting where the market has left things for sure.
[Update 5:22PM: This next chart is for a guest that is asking how the waves would connect together in forming bigger structures.   These waves would be an "ideal" structure and we know they usually never happen in such an ideal manner. However something similar should occur so its not a bad guess.

The idea is that this is a Primary wave [3] and that consists of a (5) wave Intermediate wave structure labeled in red (1).  The theory is that the market will be entering a very bearish Minor wave 3 (blue) of Intermediate (1).

The following chart suggests that Intermediate (1) will ideally fall to at least 865 SPX.  Time-wise it should be a multi-month decline for an intermediate-sized wave but time is a big wildcard.  It could take longer.

So this is the thought process of what a bearish waver like myself is looking for in some form or another. P3 requires a new price low under 666 SPX so a wave (1) that lops off a whole lot of P2 certainly makes sense.
Primary count is that today's low is the end of wave (i) of of [i] of 3.  The new low panned out although it was deeper than perfect

The alternate is that the market will rechallenge the highs and mark a new wave 2 peak.  We have some trendlines to look out for.

The lower bit of the big SPX gap acted as support so in that sense its bullish in that the gap held as support and rallied hard.
Hammer suggests today's low will hold for a while, well at least 1 day for sure anyways...
Pretty good impulse waves down. Overlapping up.
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