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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

E-minis [Update 3:43PM]

[Update 3:43PM: I don't think we'll have a close over the flash crash candle using the Wilshire. The DJIA will though. This was the first mass market sell decision point as reflected by horrible internals. The market has worked very hard over many months to get back to this spot. 

Is it exhausted? Is today an overreach?  10 points of open gaps just below?  Bear wave two's wish not to be wave 2's. So they must challenge the point of impact and overcome it.  This is exactly where the market can be expected to fail if its a wave 2.]

[Update 2:42PM: Long term Wilshire, non-log scale]
[Update 2:24PM: Although it feels like equities are an unstoppable force and are destined for greatness or whatever, in reality the indexes are just making it back toward their previous intra-day highs.  Some have not yet made it back. I suppose the day will end near HOD though. Internals are pretty strong. ]
[Update 1:56PM: Well we can rule out a triangle. Today has impulsed up.  

Putting things in a simple manner with this chart below. Shifting to a higher trading range. Support again moves higher.
Coming up on the flash crash candle high using the Wilshire5000.   Near term support has shifted higher obviously.  
[Update 10:46PM: Wave (iv) expanding triangle on the USD/JPY then thrust lower]

[Update 9:55AM: Actually getting back to a possible triangle count, I would say we already had a complex leg in the "c" wave.  If this is a "d" then look for a simple 3 wave ZZ I would think

[Update 9:49AM: 10 points of gap within a 15 point range. Sheesh, they are just asking to be closed in a dramatic fashion (eventually - and exactly when is the trick!).]

[Update 9:30AM: Looking for a complex "d" wave, or impulse up or breaking the support pivot. Lets see what the market tells us today.]

[Update 7:20PM: One has to wonder if the dollar is heading back toward its long-term trendline.  The time-value and level is just a quick scenario.  If it drove down hard, I would think a big snapback is coming. If it begins to dribble as it did in late 2009, it could take longer.

But again, sentiment is persistently low on the dollar and high on the Euro. Once sellers and buyers are exhausted, a turn should be coming.
Dollar new low overnight
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