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Friday, October 1, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 October [Update 6:33PM]

[Update 6:33PM: The Wilshire daily chart still suggests overall weakness and rolling over.  I know it seems it is taking forever but hey each day adds to the tape and paints a continuing picture.

Technically the Wilshire has just made its highest close of the rally from July lows to date.  But OBV, CMF, RSI , MACD history show negative divergence.  Its wedging nicely but as someone pointed out in comments, the same  wedge appeared at the April peaks and the final push never came to be (although I had it in an expanding ending triangle).  So here we are. We still have five intra-day squiggles down from the recent peak on every index and the "mess" since then is certainly not an impulse up.

Conclusion? If the market has a last gasp buying spasm, one of those "we got to gap up insanely big and buy, buy, buy,"   then an ED could be in play so look for yet another reversal.

If the market just does a quick head fake up Monday and then gives up, that will do just fine too.

If it does something else then we'll still try our best.
[Update 5:35PM: The RUT supports the notion of an Ending Diagonal triangle if the market thrusts up on Monday]
Mild up day but NYAD was up pretty good at above 2:1 advancers.  This puts a new all time high on the NYAD chart.  Again, this has to finish out. I like my count on it.
And the weekly seems to fit in nicely with the daily.  But still, it may have some more to run.

And as long as the NYAD is running up, well, its tough to be a bear.
The squiggles don't seem to sport any true impulses over the last many trading days.

This count imagines a big ED triangle.  Pushing up in complex zigzags.  You could say its a "running correction", but the constant spike stabs of prices attempting to get higher perhaps fits better with an ED mentality. This is particularly true since so many markets are near daily sentiment extremes (gold, silver, dollar, Euro, SPX, certain commodties, bonds)

At any rate, the lack of an impulse pattern down, other than the brief 5 wave squiggle from the high, continues to suggest the market is not yet finished. Until a key pivot breaks or the ridiculous gap at 1125 closes, we just have to be patient and wonder how deep the pool is left.

Complex waves as of late.  Rule of alternation suggests this will end and a more simple pattern will emerge. Either more impulsing up or impulsing down in simple patterns.
Looking at the Wilshire5000, or total market, it has retraced some 70%.  It has not yet reached the top of its "mass market sell decision" point quite yet.  This will be a tough spot to overcome if the market can continue to keep marching higher.

I painted a converging blue lines which could be a wedge forming taking it to the top of the flash crash candle.
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