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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 October [Update 7:20PM]

[Update 7:20PM: IYR wedge.]
[Update 7PM: I still like my VIX chart It has a certain rhythm.
[Update 6:40PM: I had Google in a 5 wave pattern down. ( I had this before EWI by the way for those that subscribe) Now a 3 wave rise has occurred.  Time ratios are excellent.
I don't think we can make a much better count than this. Wedge in the 5th wave position.

[Update 6:25PM: Again the Wilshire daily. The point is the On Balance Volume is flat and unable to move higher above its June, July and September rally OBV peaks. Maybe it finally breaks out a bit, but its still severely impaired suggesting that the market is weakening here. 

{Update 6PM]
This post explains the reasoning behind where I have this 80 year channel line.

Amazingly, I have not altered this channel line since I laid it out back in March.

Today was a perfect kiss of it. Everything above the channel represents insanity mania.

When stocks cannot get above this channel line, and this is its third test this year, I propose that prices will fall and seek out the lower channel line.
A glimpse of where the lower channel resides through 2012.  The upper line is always wanting to continue higher. As time goes on, the requirements for the market to keep up with this upper channel line will likely be too much to bear. 
The ending diagonal count is still intact. There are no violations in the Wilshire. However, the top today would pretty much have to count as the ending point. 

Another weird day. VIX closed on a long white candle up after a gap down and back inside its BB. I think the "trigger" has been set.  I think it will work this time.  
NDX new high today which is now "out of the way".  The NDX diverged at the March 2009 low and to see it diverge here in 2010 was not unexpected. Actually I am glad it made a new high, it never had a valid count down from April.

Muted up volume ratio on the NYSE closing at only 3.39. Although the day "felt" like some kind of 90% day for a lot of it with yet another opening unclosed gap up, it really only was about a 72% up day across the board. 

ED is still intact as of today. 

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