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Friday, October 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 October [Update 7:30PM]

[Update 7:30PM: Another look at the DJIA Supercycle upper channel line and its holding the DJIA in check so far.  Breadth is diverging. ]
[Update 7PM: This is probably my preferred count for Minor wave 2.  Yes it has retraced above 78.6% but there is no rule on how high 2 can go. I use the Wilshire here for form and total market waves.

I have it labeled here as a double zigzag corrective Minor 2 up. That is my bear count.  You can certainly re-label it likely as a 5-3-5 single zigzag up.

I like the examples of both the July low turn and the August low turn. That pattern reminds me of where the dollar is now

[Update 6PM: The e-minis, all-hours, shows a possible up pattern with a triangle in the works.]
A closer look at the proposed triangle in works. Its a decent chance its a triangle as the [D] wave appears to be the complex wave.
[Update 5:30 PM: We have to assume the NDX is a 5 wave formation up from the July lows.  Its likely missing a down/up squiggle if my count is correct below at the very least.

But so far, today's close was a Fibonacci 1.60 times the length of wave [i] so perhaps we are looking at the near the end of a wave [iii] versus [v].
Intraday triangle perhaps.  Which way is it pointing though?  I have a count for both.

I think the count works better as an (a)(b)(c) zigzag which would be the [y] wave of a double zigzag.  It always works nicely in the channel.  First half of the zizgag was in the upper half of the channel. The last half is located in the lower side of the channel.

A bullish triangle might count like this:
A bearish triangle may mean a gap down Monday only to recover and continue on a zigzag move to a Minor 2 high. This would match the fractal that occurred at the April peaks.  A fake-out down and one last move up to shake the last of the bears.
Here is the April 2010 fractal Just something to keep in mind.
The other option is that the market has seen its high for now
VIX looks likes its impulsing up again
Our updated NYAD count. Blue 3 of (5) is now longer than Blue 1 which is preferable.  I wonder if blue 4 down is coming to the lower trendline.

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