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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 October [Update 8:33PM]

[Update 8:33PM: Again an interesting interaction with my blue Super-cycle upper channel line Note that so far this year 2010 there have been thee separate average of 1000 point  or more DOW sell-offs that originated from this line including the May 6th Flash Crash.

I am convinced that market feels this line and I think I have it in the right spot. I haven't moved it since I laid it down at January high. ]
[Update 7:55PM: When AMZN (and other stocks in a parabolic rises - i.e.-NFLX) rolls over, maybe the market will.  But AMZN is probably tracing some of the clearest waves as of late so why not see where it leads?

Note That Minor 5 = 1 at $176.
The second chart shows that within Minor 5, its shaping up to be Minute [v] = [i] at about....$176 roughly if things pan out.

So that is some good Fib confluence and a nice target ($175). There is no reason to expect Minor 5 to extend as Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) extended a near perfect Fibonacci 1.58 (just shy of 1.61)

Sorry for the late post, didn't have time today to look at much. But one thing is apparent: the market has a destination in mind and seems determined to get there.

The squiggles are some of the ugliest I have tried to count lately which could be good for bears.  Beautiful impulsing is a sight to behold. A struggling market produces ugly....

Ugly waves also tend to find themselves within triangles too....

With the continuance of both zigzags up and down the last few days, I would have to say the market is dealing with serious resistance. Namely the April DOW highs and the 200 week SPX moving average at 1195.

Rather than try to nail down a squiggle count, stepping back the market may be triangulating in order to consolidate up at high support so it can attempt a breakout of 1195 and the big SPX gap at 1197-1202.  This is where the resistance is.

However, if the market "stabs" upward again to a new high tomorrow, it could smack of an exhaustive ending diagonal wave move. So the jury is out.
So far the market is best counted as 3 big waves from the July lows. If we correct a bit deeper here (say perhaps to 1150 SPX) but maintain above the August highs of 1129 SPX, it could be a Minor wave 4 and then a Minor 5 will come and take out the April highs. That is the best "bigger picture" alternate I can come up with.
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