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Friday, October 29, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 October [Update 7:50PM]

[Update 7:50PM: Pretty much sums up a lot of what I talk about:

I propose this basic truth of one of Nature' Laws:
When the time comes for a society's most acute need of a social safety net is exactly when it will fail in a most spectacular fashion. 

[Update 6PM: Oil is a bit of a tough read. But overall, I would say the chart might have an upward edge going forward.  But will that be good for stocks? Fundamentally, $85 oil is not good for the economy and gets Mom and Pop America in a stinky mood. I think this is generally reflected in stock prices somewhat.  So if oil does pass again upward over $85 certainly that is not great for the economy and may mark yet another peak in stock prices perhaps.] 
[Update 5:20PM: NDX is perhaps an ED in the making. Lots of upwardly biased overlapping zigzags. Combine this chart with the AAII 4-week being the highest since 2005 and outside its BB, well ya gotta think the end is nigh and a price reversal won't pretty.]
[Update 5PM: NDX futures]
I think we'll have to continue going with the triangle setup as price action seems to warrant it. But the triangle is likely running out of room as the [E] wave itself may have morphed into its own triangle which can happen.

So the bias is still up for early next week and the "thrust" potential is still very much alive. GDP Friday turned out to be a real snoozer which was a bit surprising. But then again, the reported 2% gain in GDP is neither super bullish  (it will likely be revised down to 1.5% or lower in the future) nor super bearish for now.

If this breaks upward as per triangle come next week, pay special heed to my triangle timing apex line.  These can be very accurate predicting a turn.
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