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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 January [Update 10:11]

[Update 10:11PM: Long bond yield wave count.  I have adjusted the count to a wave 4 flat.  If support breaks and its not a flat it could be the ALT that I show.]
Using  base channel technique:

[Update 9:57 PM: Dollar chart has pretty much lulled most people to sleep as it has arguably traced a lazy 5 waves up covering some many months. But now the retrace is approaching 61.8%.

(c) = (a) @ 77.10 which is a tad over 62% retrace.
Here is a more detailed look at wave [ii] down on the dollar:  I have an Ending Diagonal triangle for the (c) wave.  This suggests when the dollar does turn back up, it will be a sharp turn.
Heres the update:
Thats about the gist of it.  We either start a wave three down soon or it claws to new highs in a wave [v] (and then the bottom drops out).  The consolidation trading zone suggests more upside, albeit possibly unsteady upside, but the wave pattern "bounce" is not convincing as an impulse pattern up.

This chart shows the fractured market. And overall, that is not usually a bullish development after a 6 month rally.
The top alternate count for the Wilshire which may become primary if the market can break to the upside tomorrow. The RSI line is interesting. If we get another hit on it, we may see a near double-top high or at least a deep retrace up.
I'll have more later, but got to run.
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