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Friday, February 11, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 February [Update 8:05PM]

[Update 8:05PM: GDOW chart. (C) almost = .618 of (A)
[Update 5:20PM:  PVT trendline for the DJIA. I just thought of a nickname for Monday should the markets have a 5% down day - "Bloody Valentine's Day". I guess that was not very original hehe.
[Update 5:11PM: Here is the India chart from 2007 and how it was topping as US markets were into a wave 3 down. Now the reverse may be true

Its just an observation but it is unusual for the Indian market experience a big downdraft and nothing at all comparable to the same happening in the US. So it suggests, at the very least, the US markets are due a breather. At the very worst for bulls, the US market will punish the piggishness of this up trend and do it very quickly to trap all bulls at the higher end. At the same time, a flash crash would punish bears because there are few shorts in the market at the moment and very few nimble enough to catch a flash crash in progress and have the balls to ride it down.

The market is cruel.
[Update 4:52PM: My NYAD counts. Note the declining up volume ratio on the first chart.  This is why I think this is a (C) wave of a 3 wave bear market rally from the 2009 lows.  Now if Monday we get a 14:1 up day, sustained all day, I may have to change my tune.
5 = 1 and every subwave is accounted for. Now lets see what happens.
We got our wave (v) of [v] break upwards today toward that magical 1333 spot.  That number holds some significance as the March 2009 low was 666.79. So its a double.  The fact thats its triple 333's versus triple 666's is spooky. This whole freaking market is spooky.

If this count below is accurate, wave (iii) is shorter than (i) therefore the upside for (v) is limited by rule (cannot be longer than 30 points in length on the SPX). Its still has plenty of leeway though at today's close.

Its been a 10 day rally off the pivot and that is a nice round number. 
If ever there was a decent chance to predict a flash crash event in the US markets early next week to catch up to the downside with some other world markets, the following chart may give some clues. 

India's market looks to be well into a Wave 3 down event. US markets making new highs. Very disconnected.  Stretched.

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