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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 March 2011 [Update 8:34PM]

[Update 8:34PM: What if the country awakens, all at once, to the fact that we are truly screwed?  Would that be a Ponzi moment?

Do you think that when debating the debt anyone will mention, other than the criminal mastermind Madoff, that we might have a monumental Ponzi scheme going on?

[Update 8PM: Crude oil, WTI kind...and CRB
CRB looks quite mature
[Update 7:46PM: 30 year yield count keeps working like a charm.
[Update 7:33PM: Once again, the NYAD is at the channel line and the logical spot for a bounce up. So an effort at a strong bounce tomorrow would be "normal". This line is likely important. It has painted now 6-7 touch points.  This is a line born of the algorithms controlling these markets.  What happens when the line breaks? Can the algorithms deal with it?

If instead the market did not bounce but broke the uptrend line with conviction, then we have a change in character.
[Update 5:54PM: If there is any one chart that points to a massively quick collapse in equities its the IYR chart.  An ED pattern (if we suppose thats what it is) of this size points toward a complete "last-one-out-the door-is-a-rotten-egg".

Remember how wedges collapse in price to under from where the wedge starts.
I mean really, does IYR or anything with the words "real estate" in it have any business being this high anyway?
On July 6th, 2010 during the Spring/Summer swoon, the overnight futures went to 1002.75. They recovered and the cash index never went below 1010 SPX.  Bearishness in the futures and the cash index miserably refused to follow.

Now we have a reverse situation. A Fibonacci 8 months later the overnight futures went up to 1336.5 last night. The cash index did not go above 1332 today.  Bullishness in the futures and the cash index miserably failed to follow.

So the megaphone ending diagonal is off the table as there was too much downward prices today.

Down volume today was significant as you can see on this futures chart.
Daily volume shows big red candles and big red volume with smaller green in between. The character of the market has changed it seems.
Primary count. We did have our "a-b-c" up but the c wave is very stunted.
Top alternate count:
Gold confirmed my wave 5 of (5) count today with a new high.  Now we need to see how far it can spurt higher. Oil is at an extreme $100 and sentiment is too. Dollar is trying to find its footing and has very bearish sentiment.  All markets seem to be lining up for a dramatic change:
The trendlines/channels are interesting here.
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