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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 March [Update 7:50PM]

[Update 7:50PM: It is not without good reason I have a leading diagonal as the primary count in the US markets. When we look at other world markets, we see that a 5th wave down for them too is certainly a good stance to take considering some of the charts are trashed like the DAX. But a few examples:
India has been going sideways. Soon also due for a wave [v] if it is to come.
[Update 7:25PM: EUR/USD long term chart.
[Update 5:15PM: I like to "look test"  Minor-sized counts and above on a daily chart. In other words, you should see 5 waves down, you should see the a-b-c three wave corrections.  In this case you should see an expanding shape if this is an expanding LD. So far on all counts, it looks good on the daily. We just need it to actually follow through and happen.]
Prices have broken over the upper down channel line as we expected to occur for my proposed expanded leading diagonal count. We now have a "diverging" [i]-[iii] line versus the [ii]-[iv] line for our proposed expanding leading diagonal.   It would look better if it diverged a bit more with higher prices.

Our Minute [iv] target range is 1303.98-1316 based on EWP's guideline of 66-81% retrace of the previous wave [iii] down for a leading diagonal count.  We have an uncovered gap in that zone and the 20 and 50 DMA just overhead at 1302-1304ish.  An ideal target range would be a visit to the down candle on my 30 minute chart in the blue box area 1308-1312. Then a downturn must occur.

So we have a setup for a Minute [iv] peak and subsequent Minute [v] downturn to lower lows.
The alt count is of course the Minor 5 to new highs. I haven't discussed this much lately because I think it is a lower probability.  The squiggles are not yet forming any kind of coherent impulse pattern up - only zigzags in my opinion so far which is consistent with a counter-trend rally wave. For instance you'll notice the overlap today with some previous pivots.
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