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Friday, July 1, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 July 2011

Primary count is the market is either in a [d] wave up in a Minor 4 triangle or Minute [iii] of Minor 5 is playing out. In the long run, there is not a whole lot of difference between the 2 counts. Both imply a challenge to the 1370 high eventually.
A new All-time DOW Transports closing high sets up a non-confirmation with the Industrials. A failure of the Industrials to follow suit is considered a bearish sign.
Of course the larger bearish sign is the even larger non-confirmation event. The combination of a large long-time non-confirmation, combined with a local non-confirmation is a powerful bear signal in my humble opinion.  We'll see how it plays.
DJIA Supercycle channel line is being challenged as I suggested might happen.
I was correct in that the NYAD was stretching its legs in Minute [iii] of Minor 5 of its own count. Perhaps the SPX is also tracing Minute [iii] of Minor 5.
I had been harping on the fact that Intermediate term sentiment indicators (those that track weeks/month(s)) were very bearish and that if the bears could not get the market to have 5 solid waves down, then the bull count could prevail.  Now those same Intermediate term indicators are turning up again. If this is Minor 5, I do not necessarily expect them to match the previous bullish extremes that occurred a few months back. They could, but its not required.  But they should be close I imagine.

It takes price to correct sentiment readings in either direction and price is what we have certainly gotten. The AAII survey and others should certainly have "flipped" bullish by the result of today's technical bullish price follow-through. Indeed 5 consecutive lovely up candles will do that.

So a key question is, how much further time and price is required to get these certain intermediate indicators back to a sufficient extreme bullishness to mark our proposed Minor 5 wave top?  Well I'll stick with (C) = (A) in an approximate Fib 13 months time frame each and so we'll assume it'll take at least a few more weeks. August 1st would be 13 months for wave (C).  Middle of August would be (C) = (A) in time.
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