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Monday, July 18, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 July 2011 [Update 7:40PM]

[Update 7:40PM: Apple rallying hard into earnings tomorrow.  Awesome impulse wave. This chart suggests they will sell the earnings release.
[Update 6:19PM: Another look based on the top alternate [e] wave count (as opposed to the preferred [e] wave count). Rally target for (b), should it occur, would be approx 1326-1327 SPX.

This [e] makes sense as the longer they drag out the debt ceiling deal negotiations, the longer [e] meanders. Any "done" deal may spark a Minor 5 rally, or certainly at least an attempt at one.

But will they sign a deal in time?  One wonders. Social mood is surely foul.  But the [e] predicts they will. We shall see.

[Update 5:30PM:
An [e] wave can take many squiggle paths to get to a Fib ratio of where [e] = .618 x [c]. That mark is 1287.  One could figure we continue to drop from here but we may have only completed wave (a) at today's low.  Tomorrow will be telling.

Top alt squiggle count with a proposed extended wave v since iii and i looked about equal. This will mean that the [e] wave will take much more time and likely bleeding off bullish sentiment even more as it goes.
The big thing is probably an [e] wave will have a pronounced (a)-(b)-(c) look on a daily chart. I don;t think we have that at the moment and I can see something like this with a bounce back toward 1326-1327 area or the wave [2] of v of (a).
The market has established a key down trend line from the recent 1356 high. There is now also a key pivot price at 1316.30 - Friday's high price.

1298 price was breached which was my minimum price drop for an [e] wave low (and confirms that the previously labeled [i] of 5 up was not to be).  However, the squiggles appear to be at least missing one wave, maybe a few to complete an [e] wave.

Couple of squiggle counts presented with the theme being the market is within wave (c) of [e].
Daily Wilshire:
SPX daily shows we have reached the [e] wave target box, but some more price to the downside would look better.
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