I am unsure about this count, but I give it the benefit of the doubt due to sentiment (see next chart).
Sentiment has certainly corrected upwards on the dollar. Via Sentiment Trader, we can see, a long marginal price consolidation period has produced a plural bullish sentiment. Something doesn't fit. Sentiment is high and prices are sluggish when viewed on this chart. Ultimately that supports a steady thrust down in my opinion to wipe the bullish sentiment out - yet I don't expect a new low in sentiment - maybe just back to the green bollinger band on the sentiment chart. Anyways, I could be wrong, but its a consistent view on how EW theory works in conjunction with sentiment.
One more thing: RISING YIELD DEFLATION. Google it. The definition doesn't exist because I pretty much invented the term. Its not in the "books". It basically means rising interest rates will cause massive defaults and herald in a terrible deflation due to credit collapse.
Just figured I'd post the term one more time for posterity's sake.
[Update 8:52PM: I have no short yet on bonds and I must say I am rooting for yields to go a bit lower on the 30 year as explained earlier to fulfill an EW count.
Does this make a valid cup and handle formation?
[Update 7PM: A closer look at the squiggle reveals a very nice 5 wave impulse pattern up. I used the Wilshire 5000 for superior form. A shallow-ish pullback suggests a b wave in this case. And as I type this I notice a surge in the /es, futures but the NASDAQ remains subdued for now.
So (b) wave may not be over. A higher target would be next resistance at 1344 and closing the SPY gap.
ORIGINAL POST
Stocks had no follow-through to yesterday and did not manage to close any indexes in the positive territory. On intra-day commentary I figured they would manage a positive close and try to use momentum to challenge the 1331 resistance zone overnight. But they day ended on weak note and A/H's saw more selling in the form of impulsive down. So we'll see how tonight plays out of course, its still early.
So 1331 SPX resistance did indeed prove a "stopper" at least for today. If this is a (b) wave of [e], it has certainly retraced a very robust amount for a (b) wave of a proposed 5-3-5 zigzag.
Note the inclusion of a Superbear count. As suggested the other day, I harbor no illusions that the market
must rally to a doubletop 1370 or higher. It would make for a nice overall wave pattern, but we have been trading in this trading range (1250 - 1370) for many months now and it may be ready to just get the hell out of it - to the downside. So hence we have our P[3] count ready to go.
However, the overall wave structure still calls for only wave [e] for the primary count and we'll go with that until it proves otherwise
Another reason why the (b) of [e] may have topped because the e-minis looks like a completed 3-3-5 expanded flat in the futures as suggested the last night http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zxrxI3Trl1k/TiYyWIj2zUI/AAAAAAAAJhs/zZMK4JVQ4fM/s1600/2011-07-19-TOS_CHARTS.png
30 year bond yields are stubbornly trying not to push down. We may have a mini continuation head and shoulders pattern with a target toward the 3.99% yield range which of course would finally be a challenge to the virgin wave space blue box area.
The long term picture shows I am extremely bullish bond yields (hence negative on prices). We are looking at 94% Daily Sentiment Index on bond prices as reported by EWI tonight! If yields go one more notch down as I am calling for, well, you'll have your wave (2) of [3] low.
A scary selloff in equities - such as wave (c) of [e] - may produce this final wave in yields. Or a debt deal. I don't know what the "spark" will be, but the wave pattern suggests its coming soon. But 94% Daily Sentiment is getting to be a one-sided trade and aligns perfectly with our overall wave pattern.