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Friday, August 12, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 August 2011

An ideal price peak for Minute [iv] would be the triple Fib area between 1195 - 1204.  In other words, 1200 resistance.   It could be only (a) of [iv].
Sellers are laying low for the moment. But a push higher, if it occurs Monday, should bring out some selling.
Possible squiggle count from an "(a)-(b)-(c)" bearish counter trend perspective.  (c) practically equals (a) in points. I'd love to see a pop higher Monday toward 1195 - 1200 then a severe rollover and prices go down in either (b) of [iv] or Minute [v] itself. But I certainly ain't the only one who thought of that so we'll see.
The bottom line is the market had a monster up day yesterday and today can be considered some follow-through, but certainly not another 90% plus up day. Up ratio and volume on the NYSE and NASDAQ finished at about 60%.

If the market can pull off another big up day early next week and finish higher than say 1220, that puts the Minute [iv] count in jeopardy.  But bonds were being bought today which may be signalling another setup for some heavy selling next week. 1200 will be tough to break back through and then hold as support.

With the McClellan's Oscillator back to only -8, the market is not oversold on a short term basis.  Sentiment is horrible still but it is supposed to be at the lower depths of a Minor 1 wave.   The key of course if lower lows than 1100 prior to anything higher than 1258 SPX. Thats a wide range yes.

In fact, the market certainly is in its "new" trading range of roughly 1100 - 1200.  It may stay there a while in finishing Minute [iv], then Minute [v] down breaks under the range and Minor 2 takes us back through the range and pokes above.

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