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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 August 2011 [Update 5:24PM]

[Update 5:24PM: Another look at the Minor 2 count using the S&P daily.

You can see the 1220ish resistance and the 1173 support in the daily. These are 2 key levels in my opinion. A break below 1173 is bearish and may confirm a Minute [v] of Minor 1 down.  A break above 1220 likely confirms Minor 2 wave count.

And for now, prices are stuck in between and may be for a while.

Price action seemed constructive today for the bulls. Intraday, short term overbought conditions worked themselves out a bit yet prices maintained ok.

The Minute [iv] count is still in play but I admit I am losing faith in this count though we have room for a pop up to 1215 SPX or so. I'd prefer to see the market rollover in Minute [v] down, and it may still, yet the market "pause" after the mini-crash probably needs more time to play out.  1-2% price swings are a lot less violent than 4-6%!
We may as well explore the possibility this is Minor 2 wave up.  Specifically looking for the top of Minute [a]. Then pullback in [b] and a strong upside [c] - perhaps timed with Jackson hole.
Despite the 2 competing counts, the near term moves over the next day/week can support either count.  So we may not know until next week what the preferred count is but my gut is leaning toward Minor 2 up.  This thinking is mostly influenced by Sentiment Trader's intermediate-term sentiment data and charts.  Many are extremely oversold still, and if it takes a few weeks to work that out, then that means higher prices which points toward Minor 2.

Either way, I'm long term bearish as usual. Just trying to figure out the best entry points again.
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