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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 November 2011 [Update 7:21PM]

[Update 7:21PM: This squiggle count makes sense for now.  The day had to end at the low to fulfill this count's minimum ending price of an extended [5]. So for now, I like the count.

Also note the VIX was greatest at the bottom of proposed wave [3]. It can be said to be diverging.

But no one can deny the beautiful impulse patterns - ala 2008...

[Update 6:31PM: The squiggle count of the last 8 days of selling maybe be merely wave i of (iii) of [i] of 3 down. (Remember Minor 3 target is optimally 813 SPX! - we have a lot of squiggling to count)

Whenever I count squiggle impulses and what appears to be a solid wave three and four - in this case red sub waves [3] and [4] - and wave [5] comes but then extends some more, I think of an extended wave five.  This can also occur when there is no clearcut "third of a third" within the squiggle structure. So an extended wave i of (iii) is what we could have going on here.

Incidentally, the rebound target wave ii after an extended subwave [5] of i would be the previous wave (2) area of the extension within wave [5]. This is per Prechter and EWP.

Overall it counts well and an extended wave five is a "bleeder" stair-stepping type wave. So it makes sense here also considering nothing stands out as "wow" thats the middle of a third wave.
The DJIA I think marks where wave (ii) orthodox ending is:
The best wave count is that the market is working on producing the first subwave Minute [i] of Minor 3 down.

Minor 3 would unfold itself in 5 Minute-sized waves. Hence the wave count of Minute [i] of Minor 3.

Minor 3 down is projected to be a big wave. For instance, if Minor 3 expands by a normal 1.618 Fibonacci of Minor 1, the projected price low of Minor 3 is 813 SPX!

A strong guideline of wave threes - particularly one this size - is that the first subwave one will try and advance prices beyond the previous higher degree wave one.  This implies Minute [i] of 3 should ideally be below 1074 at least or somewhere in the vicinity.

The market "should" produce an oversold on Medium and Intermediate term time (multi week at least) and sentiment scales for Minute [i] of 3.  Currently the market is not near producing this yet as its just coming off its bullish rebound that Minor 2 produced!

So this also implies that we have a ways to go.

The daily shows this relationship along with necklines, trend-lines and base channels.

Tracking the subwaves of a Minute [i] of Minor 3 is likely to be tricky as it is proving so far. All we have to remember is the larger forces of negative trend is severe at a wave 3 level of this size.
The e-mini (all hours) downtrend line is well intact. Keep watching this is probably the easiest for now.

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