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Friday, March 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 February 2012

With the strong 3 day rebound, one has to conclude that the market was not exhausted at the highs of last week.

This chart below summarizes the 3 best counts in no particular order:

1. Market will triangulate and break over its 2011 highs to finish up wave [2]. This is the longest time scenario and allows a sharp selloff early next week to cover the recent gaps up.

2. Market will burst higher perhaps to the upper wedgeline early next week to finish out wave [2] and reverse. (This may be your "blowoff top" scenario).

3. Market will fail to confirm either last week's price high or 2011's price high (or both) and will reverse and break the up trendline.

Either way, all 3 imply a bearish ending is soon coming. The breaking of the up trendline to the downside may result in a flash crash event particularly if the market finishes a wedge move upwards.

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