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Thursday, April 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 April 2012

The S&P pushed through breakdown resistance (1388-1391SPX) today. If it can backtest and hold this as support, then challenging the 1422 previous high seems very attainable and perhaps higher.

Futures have pulled back testing this breakout. If the breakout fails to hold support, a sharp selloff is a high probability. 
If support can be held on the Wilshire5000 - roughly 14,560 - then it will be able to challenge and make new recovery highs. If support fails, then there could be a violent selloff reaction resulting in a wave (iii) down.

So the major resistance has been pushed through and challenged. If  it holds, then this is not a wave (ii), but likely wave [v] of C.
The bear count is again simple.  If support fails to hold, downside surprise is possible.  It would be labeled wave (iii) down.

Its actually a good price point for a short entry attempt. If support fails then good gains can be made. If support holds then the stop would be today's price peak.
The CAC is a good proxy perhaps for what may happen overall with European and American markets. The CAC is likely in a wave [ii] bounce which means the American markets likely will bounce further also.  Which means a non-confirmation if the SPX manages new highs above 1422 and the European market do not.
The GDOW is also telling a wave story. 5 waves down from the recent counter-trend high like the CAC.
Weekly Wilshire shows the big picture. major divergence on the RSI and total volume drop-off is just sickly and MACD history bars are on the verge of negative.

If the Wilshire can continue to push up we have resistance spanning from the recent 14,951 - 14990 (2000 peak).

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