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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 January 2013

By all accounts, the waves since the 2009 low - collectively as a whole - count better as corrective waves rather than a cycle-sized (or supercycle for that matter) impulse.  The more recent overlapping wedge is a scary prospect for the market. This implies that the market is exhausting on such a large time scale that the subsequent price collapse should be something to behold.

The question is - as with any triangle be it regular or an ending diagonal - is being able to confidently see it ending. It has, at least on the Wilshire5000, met the minimum requirements - a higher high than wave 3 as marked below:

Note the time relationship.
Perhaps the best count is the triple zigzag
Yet even though the Wilshire is at a multiyear high, the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are not.  The market is at a non-confirmation stage at the moment. If its stays like this, its bearish.
GDOW is a big head and shoulder continuation pattern with bearish implications. And of course, the GDOW's rebound peak is all the way back in 2011!
Nikkei long term count.
XLF gap over its upper wedgeline can be a typical behavior of "overthrow".
SPX at the moment can still count as a Minute [ii] and testing the underside of its lower wedgeline.

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