Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 March 2013

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 March 2013

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 March 2013

Some short term squiggle ponderings:

An imperfect ending diagonal?

Or just something more conventional? (kinda the same result as above anyway).

Or how about the ol' (w)-(x)-(y) combination corrective with a triangle in the final position trick. This price move would close today's gap up and then thrust up likely toward new all-time S&P500 highs.

Breadth Thrust diverging:

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Clearly what appears to b e five waves down from the high.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2013

If the past 13 years has been an expanding triangle, the rally since 2009 would be labeled primary [D] wave.  "D" waves are usually the most complex wave in a triangle and this one probably fits that description as there is a lot of overlap. There is certainly more of a "three" wave look about it rather than an impulse which is the main evidence.

D waves are dangerous waves, particularly in an expanding triangle. For what comes next is the longest wave = the "E" wave.  E waves are almost never complex in a triangle. They are typically fast and furious. This would be one huge [E] wave taking back the entire price rise of wave [D} and then some.

It can be theorized that D waves are largely built on false hopes and extremely shaky economic foundations  Is there any doubt that is the case here concerning the economic foundation?

Regardless, this wave has not yet reached the upper trendline. Its about the same in both log and non-log scale so only the log scale is shown.   Its not required to meet the upper trendline, but at this point would it surprise anyone if it did?  I suppose not.

The [D] Wave count is not the primary count.  But the expanding pattern is there all the same. It would take a significant "overthrow" up the upper trendline to invalidate an expanding pattern.

Weekly:

New Intraday high. Pattern will complete when it completes. That's all we can really say.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 March 2013

Again, until we can eliminate a wave [iv], its still on the table. Possible triangle development.

For some reason this post didn't post last night.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 March 2013

Every indication is that a third wave down is coming taking prices well under (i)

NIKKEI COUNT
One impressively overbought market. I should have labeled these 1 degree lower as you'll see in the second Nikkei chart. Its too time consuming to go back and lower the wave labels so I'll leave it as it is for now.

But the main point is the entire mess fits nicely into a shallow sloping corrective channel that is labeled 3 waves overall.

Long term shows a differing degree than the one above but the idea is the same.  Indeed channeling long term too.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 March 2013

Possible leading expanding diagonal.

Regardless, 5 waves is either complete or nearly so:

Couple of examples of extreme sentiment readings (came out today) via Sentiment Trader
Rydex ratio:

Bearish % of the Investor's Intelligence survey:

Combined elevated sentiment with extreme overbought on an intermediate scale (weekly)

Indeed now overbought on an even longer term scale (monthly) and nearing an expanding triangle upper trendline:

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March 2013

The alternate count may as well be the primary at least until support is solidly broken.  In other words, the wave structures certainly supports a [v] of 5 of (C) as labeled below.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 March 2013

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Minimum target reached

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 March 2013

Squiggles are filling out nicely.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 March 2013

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 March 2013

Still waiting for this 5 wave move to confirm its finish.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 March 2013

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 March 2013

The count is still on track:

On February 1st,  I stated that if the 10 year yield can hold 1.85 as support it should move higher toward next resistance. So far that is the case. 

My prediction is that long term yields will continue to rise widening the the yield curve between the long and short end. But the next compression won't be downward, it should be upward pulling the 6 month (and 3 month) yields higher. 

Hence the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates. (Proving that the Fed is not really in control)

And then they will not be praised, they will certainly be damned instead when things start spiraling out of control.

A near universal belief, by all observers, that the Fed is "omnipotent" is a very bearish market trait.  Who doubts the Fed? No one? You should, we are nearing "peak Fed mania". 

The most recent NAAIM survey via Sentiment Trader. Quite extreme.

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7 March 2013