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Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 November 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 November 2013

Every squiggle can be considered in place as a minimum.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 November 2013

This is the week where [Y] = [W] in time.

Squiggle count:

Wilshire 5 minute chart may be missing wave v of (v) of [v] of 5 of (C)

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 November 2013

On a squiggle scale, there are enough waves to consider the count complete.

Long term Supercycle wave (a) is shaping up to be an expanded flat. This implies cycle wave 'c' will end far far below the 2009 low.

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Almost a complete 5 waves up from the 1736 low.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 November 2013

The endgame is approaching.  I'm going to do something I haven't done in quite a while...short the market either tomorrow or Monday based on the wave count and the extreme sentiment readings of bulls. Stop Loss of like SPX 2000 hah! I'm not advising anyone to do same, just saying, like buying a bottom, these things are hard to time but ya gotta jump in there somewhere if your thinking things are a bit frothy.

Time-wise next week is where [W] about = [Y] in time.

Treasuries on the move again. Yes enjoy the final legs of the stock market melt-up. The bond market will ultimately doom it all.

We'll see if this count on the 6 month yield is correct. The evidence that this may be a wave 3 of (3) up in yields is the fact that it rebounded so quickly from its recent .02 low. Smashing over the neckiline would be a technical positive for a continued yield rise.  The fact that the Fed still talks so "matter-of-fact" about how they "control" yields leads me to believe they are about to have their asses handed to them.

Remember, they are boxed in.  They are anything but in control. Like riding a bucking bronco, you can only hold on for so long. That 6 second ride seems like the rider is in control, but eventually they all fall off...

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 November 2013

Social mood seems to be bursting lower in a some kind of wave three down if you look at the Presidential polling numbers. Yes Obamacare is quite the disaster, but social mood had already been in a downturn and thus the problems of Obamacare are quite amplified by the state of mood.

So there exists a major "disconnect" between current social mood and the stock market.  In Elliott Wave theory social mood turns first then economic results follow (to include stock market declines). So I would not hold my breath on a new market high however the wave count allows for it.

Hey its wedging also....

If the market has turned down, its impulsing nicely on even the micro scale. Even though I put a "i" and "ii" in there so far the overall wave pattern is merely a three for now.

Wilshire weekly is back under the upper channel. However the "time" factor between [W] and [Y] will occur next week.

Via Sentiment Trader, the "Smart Money" index has been selling into this rally for well over a year.

"Risk Appetite" is at an extreme.

And Elliott Wave International reported tonight that the Investor's Intelligence 4 week moving average of bulls divided by bulls plus bears has reached its highest level in 26 years.

So on one hand there is evidence of social mood is in a pissed off state (Presidential polling) and yet stocks are near a record high with a true extreme level of investor complacency. There is an extreme disconnect going on. Elliott Wave theory always suggests social mood will win out.

Based on the evidence at hand, there is a real risk to being heavy long in the stock market.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 November 2013

We have very small scale 5 wave impulsing on a 5 minute SPX chart:

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 November 2013

We'll keep updating our basic wave count charts as they are working quite well.

Missing Minuette (v) of Minute [v] of Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) of Primary wave [Y]. Sometimes these last waves just don't happen. The time ratio between [W] and [Y] is nearly perfect.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 November 2013

We'll just keep updating our basic chart count.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 November 2013

Our charts are working for the basic count.

We are getting close as the wave count suggests. Sentiment data is getting extreme. For instance the difference between "Smart money" and "Dumb money" via Sentiment Trader has reached 42%.  Dumb is at 71% and Smart is at 29% which implies we are more than ripe for a hard reversal.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 November 2013

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 November 2013

Updating our charts once again.

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 November 2013

We'll just keep updating our main chart counts as they seem to be working well.