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Friday, January 31, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 January 2014

The Intermediate lower channel line  (and horizontal support) continues to hold..


For some reason unknown to me, Think or Swim is missing yesterday's data.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 January 2014

Squiggle count options:

1. If this is wave (iv) of [i] down, then today's peak would be marked (iv) and the market must immediately go down toward a lower low.

2. If this is Minute [ii] corrective up, then expect a higher retrace (perhaps 62% or greater) before turning down hard in wave [iii] down.

3. The last option (shown on the 2 hour chart)  is that Minute [iv] price low of Minor five UP occurred yesterday and the market will make new all time highs in a final wave [v] of 5 up.

The 2 hour chart shows the Intermediate lower channel line was indeed the spot for a bounce. The market has now painted this a likely important support line. If it breaks, serious panic selling might occur. If it holds, the market may make new highs as shown in the bullish ALT count. Price action over the next few days is critical in my opinion.

Currently at this moment, the e-minis looks like a bearish impulse wave pattern down.  Despite today's impressive relief rally, as viewed in the e-minis, it puts things in perspective. In other words the bulls have expended a lot of energy recently trying to hold major support. Yet they still have a lot of work cut out to repair the technical damage. Advantage: Bears.


Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 January 2014

The Wilshire short term count. Would count better if it made a lower low.
I certainly haven't forgotten about the best bullish alternate count that we are nearing Minute [iv] low of Minor 5 up.  In that case the Intermediate-sized channel would likely hold support.

If support is not held, a significant price drop could be the result due to loss of technical support. I.E - "panic time"

Via Sentiment Trader, today's NYSE margin situation chart. Yeah, the market is quite leveraged ya think?


Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 January 2014

The rebound since yesterday's low "looks" corrective. Which implies it may be a wave (iv) of [i] down. 
Again, from a longer term standpoint, if support fails at the lower Intermediate channel line, it may induce some serious selling. We shall see if it can hold.


Monday, January 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 January 2014

The market bounced today at the place where horizontal support meets trendline support.  The market seems to recognize that it is at a critical juncture. To lose the long-standing up Intermediate wave lower channel line would be technically bearish.
Squiggle count has options. We'll just have to see how the market reacts tomorrow.
The weekly chart. Prices are back inside the cycle-wave upper channel line (blue).  Prices managed to bounce off an up-sloping technical support line (black) today.  And prices have reached the lower Intermediate channel line (red).

One can surmise that technically speaking, if prices lose the support of the black support line and the red lower intermediate channel line, then there is an excellent chance they may work their way lower all the way to the lower green cycle wave channel line.

In my opinion, it would also be a technically "ripe" area for such a thing as an oversold "flash crash". Not predicting that of course just saying it seems a good spot (technically speaking) if one were to happen. So keep a close eye on price action over the next few days.
VIX still outside its Bollinger Bands.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Friday, January 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 January 2014

Finally a bit more clarity to the potential wave count and overall wave structure.

First support was solidly closed under today.  If second support falls to the wayside eventually, the multi-year up channel will have also been likely lost. That would go a long way to confirming the Primary-sized advance is over and likely cycle wave b itself.
Wilshire weekly.
The Nikkei was due to turn also because its wave pattern counts as complete.


Thursday, January 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 January 2014

Until and unless one of the upper support is broken beneath, we'll continue to post a potential cont that has the market holding support and eventually finishing the wave structure a bit higher.

However price action was certainly bearish today so we will see if the market continues to trade in the range it has been stuck in since the new year began..


Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 January 2014

Squiggle count suggests the market is on the verge of yet another thrust upwards in wave iiii of (iiii) of [v] of 5.


Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 January 2014

According to the best squiggle count, there should be another thrust upwards in wave iii of (iii) of [v] of 5 of (C) of [Y] of b.


Sunday, January 19, 2014

Friday, January 17, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 January 2014

The 2 hour Wilshire chart below shows the 2 key support levels for the wave count. A breach of these support levels will give strong wave evidence of a bearish reversal.
Here are the support levels at a closer inspection. The market certainly has enough waves to be considered "done", however unless or until these support levels are solidly breached, we have a valid further bullish count that still "looks right".

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 January 2014

Been traveling past 2 weeks and posts have been sporadic. Heading home tomorrow though finally.

Giving the market the benefit of the count.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 January 2014

After today's upward thrust, and utilizing proper EW theory and wave counting guidelines, the best count may be something like this:
Yeah it sucks if your a bear but the 3rd Zweig Breadth Thrust event (since 2009) that happened a while back is still carrying market momentum upwards in fulfilling the final minor wave 5. That implies that wave (iii) of [v] of 5 will again produce upside surprise.

For the bears its going to take a key break of near term support levels to gain the count in their favor. It just hasn't happened yet and until it does, we have no bear count.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 January 2014

If wave ii is an expanded flat, then the correction is over or nearly over.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 January 2014

Elliott Wave International is offering an Elliott Wave Theorist Newsletter FREE published by Robert Prechter until January 6th.


Just click on the EWI ad link to the left and signup as a FREE "Club EWI Member".  Its no gimmick, its really free with no strings attached. If you signup through my EWI link (I am an affiliate) I get $3 for every EWI free "Club Member" subscription.  Then should you ever choose to buy one of their products (newletters, books, etc.) I will get a commission $$ for every product you buy.  I certainly appreciate it!

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I myself have subscribed to 4 newsletters for many years now; EW Theorist (monthly), Short Term Update (3 times a week), The Financial Forecast (monthly), and The Socionomic (monthly).  I recommend all four for those interested in Elliott Wave Theory.

Thanks again!

Possible squiggle count:


Thursday, January 2, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 January 2014

We got 5 small waves down today on the SPX.
Zooming back, it'll take a key break of support to confirm cycle wave b is over.  Unfortunately that is a ways down in price.
Zooming back even  further we can still see that the Intermediate cycle wave we have been counting (forever it seems) still very much "looks right". The wave 3 was the furthest and most rapid price advance.  We are running out of subwaves to count.
Nikkei thrust out of its triangle has made a higher high than (3) as required.  So we seem to have both the Nikkei and US markets finishing up the last "squiggle" waves. It seems appropriate since Sentiment Trader reported 41% bullish reading on their indicators last night (vs 1% bearish) and that is usually the target where things get rough for the market going forward.