Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 November 2014

Running out of ways to count this thing.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 February 2014

The waves are ragged looking and a good case to be made that a triangle exists which implies it is the final correction in this up sequence.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 February 2014

Squiggle count is getting pretty ragged.  That might indicate the waves are losing impulsiveness and are on the verge of reversing. The channel is probably important.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 February 2014

Question of the day is what is the best squiggle count? One possibility below.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 February 2014

The squiggle count below has wave (i) as the extended wave in the sequence. Since wave (iii) cannot be the shortest wave, wave (v)'s potential is nearing an end. 

In our 2 hour chart wave [v] of 5 now very nicely approximates the size of wave [i] of 5. 

Weekly:

E-minis



Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 February 2014

A review of where the best counts are both long term and short:

New all times highs but its a bullshit wave is the theory of the cycle-sized "b" wave.

Overlapping mess since the 2009 low.

Our Intermediate wave still looks correct.

Another new squeaker high today in the Wilshire, the preferred wave counting index.

An expanding pattern down from the all time high today looks bearish.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 February 2014

Quite the thrust in breadth although it does not qualify as an official Zweig Breadth Thrust event.  A close under the recent 18575 pivot would render it all a moot point. That is the key level for bears and bulls.

Significant negative divergence on the RSI weekly here.

It appears to be a small impulse down from the top with a counter-trend move up. That implies the next move is down again.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 February 2014

The Wilshire 5000 made a new high today. That is OK and actually its great because now we have a nice solid "new" wave counting starting point (I like to use the Wilshire 5000 for superior form). It still "looks" correct. I repeat myself, but its an important point.  Rally is coming upon the 5 year Fibonacci mark.

In other news, the e-minis made a nice solid 5 wave pattern lower.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 February 2014

The count still "looks" correct even if we get another market high. 

I really don't have a good squiggle count at the moment. We do have a channel at least to watch for.

E-minis

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 February 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 February 2014

Varying degrees of rebound. A lot of divergence and crosscurrents.  The rally is stretched.

E-minis

E-minis

Missing Tuesday's data

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 February 2014

Some of the indexes (but maybe not all) are likely to eventually make new market highs after today's upside surprise. We'll just move the goalposts some more and relabel if that happens.

The Minute [ii] count is just not shaping up very well. Still, we'll keep it on the radar.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 February 2014

Minute [ii] rebound is still the call. Looking for a confirmation of (a) wave peak followed by a likely 38% Fib pullback for wave (b). Then ideally wave (c) would peak Minute [ii].

6  month is getting interesting:

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 February 2014

Looking to confirm the top of wave (a) of [ii].

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 February 2014

The primary count is that the market is rebounding in a Minute [ii] wave. Anywhere from a 50-76% retrace could be considered "normal". Ideally it would trace a zigzag as shown below.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 February 2014

It counts as a complete 5 wave down. Which implies the market may be due for a Minute wave [ii] bounce.

Keeping an eye on the 6  month yield count.  If it can break resistance, it may accelerate and catch all the talking heads off guard of course.  If short term yields rise (and particularly rapidly) what will this do to the Fed's balance sheet?  Their massive leverage will break rather easily if one can imagine. 

In my opinion, this resistance line is the only thing keeping the Fed's neck above treading water. It is no coincidence that the resistance line runs back toward when they started really ramping up the first QE. Resistance breaks, and the Fed's balance sheet will break. 

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 February 2014

Still no panic.

Possible squiggle count. Another area of choppiness in the waves could be just another consolidation for a move lower.