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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 September 2014

Channel line seems important and market is trying to hold it obviously.  
The market seems to be consolidating for another move - likely lower - since the previous move was down. Market internals are weak and also suggest a move down is coming. Possible squiggles:
Of course, prices have been on the precipice before and managed to hold. If they hold again this time, possible squiggle count is wave (ii) expanded flat.
Gold needs a break below 1181 to confirm the very long term count.
Nikkei counts as complete also.  Double negative RSI divergence.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 September 2014

I obviously had a major website glitch that looks to be resolved. Basically a lot of my charts were accidentally "trashed" but they have been recovered. Thank you Google. I apologize I was unable to post anything until now.

The top counts in no particular order:
Yes the counts are diametrically opposed. Overnight futures may clue us in. We'll see. The market did achieve lower lows today across the board pretty much. That is bearish ultimately. And breath was bad.

The bounce? Well the Wilshire is trying to hang on to its lower channel line. Its important I imagine.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 September 2014

"Kid with a ruler".
Backtest of breakout resistance line is no doubt coming probably.
We need a move below 1181 to confirm the long term count of gold.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 September 2014

Broken neckline.
Channel still intact.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 September 2014

Robust rally, however by the end of the day the NYSE registered a mere 60% up issues ratio and a 67% up volume ratio. Not exactly a hard reversal internally. So that would be consistent with a wave ii up after all the indexes made 5 wave patterns down from their highs.

Wilshire shows it best.  Is it wave ii - or wave (ii) if you prefer the higher degree markings - and will it trace a bit higher in price before reversing in wave iii - or (iii) down?  I'm too lazy to change the wave degree on the 5 minute chart below. Its probably best as wave (i) down and wave (ii) up.  The 1 minute charts beneath shows the higher wave degrees.
The following 2 charts will show why I often prefer the Wilshire 5000 to make squiggle charts. It simply follows EW rules better that the less broader SPX.

First the SPX. gets a little sloppy on wave v
But the Wilshire counts fairly neatly:
Wilshire 2 hour chart shows that prices felt the lower long-term channel line.
SPX hourly shows the best alternate count is that wave iv was a flat.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 September 2014

Evidence points to an ending diagonal followed by immediate weakness that took prices swiftly back beneath the starting point of the ending diagonal triangle. 
Speaking of potential ending diagonal triangles, as pointed out by Elliot Wave International in recent short term updates, the DJIA sports a huge ending diagonal count. Robert Prechter hesitates to label it as an ED pattern because its the biggest that he has ever seen. Yet the evidence is compelling at this stage.

The ED pattern comes complete with well-formed (a)-(b)-(c) internal wave counts. Remember, ED's are the result of a wave losing its impulsiveness (i.e.- losing the ability to create clear internal 5 wave count impulse moves for waves one two and three) and is a sign of weakness.

The general rule is a swift price decline back to where the ED started and often below.  So buying bounces at this stage may be a bad bet.
SPX hourly:
Wilshire 2 hour. This also has Ending Diagonal implications.  You can see wave [v] has overlap between (i) and (iv) and I gave it a generous impulse count. However it is not a norm.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 September 2014

The evidence supports that the Wilshire5000 was in an ending diagonal triangle. A swift decline after the completion of the diagonal is the evidence. So far so good.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 September 2014

Sorry for no update last night. Stockcharts lost their intra-day data after the marekt close and it was too late for me to post by the time it was resolved.

The Wilshire 5000 made a new closing high.  A possible squiggle count could be and ending diagaonal. At any rate its messy overlap. Perhaps today was wave [4] low and another zigzag to higher highs early next week per the alt count.
SPX weekly: RSI negative divergence.
SPX 1 hour. Its a messy squiggle for the last few days. Perhaps one more pop up early next week.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 September 2014

Technically the market is ripe for a huge decline. Divergences all over the place. Weakness in the advance/decline line. But most importantly, the wave structure is very ripe.

SPX count:

Wilshire could be a leading diagonal or in the same count as the SPX.
Arguably the dollar is trying and perhaps succeeding to break long-term resistance. Lets see if it can hold its elevated price.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 September 2014

We'll use the Wilshire5000 for the short term squiggle counts. I think it gives better clarity at this moment.

It is, in effect, the same overall count as the SPX. However the Wilshire gives us better starting and ending points. For instance today the Wilshire reached a lower low before bouncing while the SPX did not. That gives us a better location to mark the start of wave counts.

We have a couple of top squiggle options. Yesterday's post showed the SPX. Today we'll show the Wilshire in the same squiggle options.

Leading Diagonal count:
Or end of wave iv low and now wave v to new highs or an attempt at new highs?
The Wilshire 2 hour chart gives the larger perspective:

Monday, September 15, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 September 2014

Some squiggle possibilities.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 September 2014

Leading diagonal triangle?
And the short term bullish potential of the squiggles takes the market to nominal new highs if today's low was wave iv.