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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 October 2014

Our GDOW chart did not get to higher highs versus yesterday.
Why track the GDOW? Because at the moment, its about the only index that has a somewhat clearer count.
Breadth Indicator update:

Gold has often been a leader to the downside. Closed under $1200 again today. Headed toward our wave (5) goal of $1033?

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 October 2014

Using the GDOW chart for clues. 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 October 2014

Update on the breadth chart. Not yet crossed the .618 line.But no longer diverging obviously.  Not a ZBT event, yet it may hold the market up for longer than the bears would like.
The big development today is that a potential "Dow Theory" non-confirmation setup is now on the clock. Transports and Industrials diverging noticeably.
Again, the GDOW chart may provide the best direction for the short/medium term count: Updated charts and some closer squiggles.
If the SPX followed the general pathing potential of the short term GDOW, then it is also looking for the top of wave [a].

Note that wave [b] is looking for a perhaps dramatic 50-60 point SPX pullback.
Obviously the GDOW may point to an [a][b][c] pattern for Minor 2. The SPX would likely follow suit in the same manner.  The Minor 2 on the SPX has already been very deep up.  2000 SPX is again in the cards, but I don't really think the market gives a shit whether or not it tops the previous 2019 intraday high.  That's just my gut reaction at the moment.  

And a 50-60 point SPX pullback would be "normal" for a wave [b] based on 38% Fib marker of the rise since the 1820 low..

Monday, October 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 October 2014

The market avoided a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) event with today's trading. The 10 day window has passed. In fact, the breadth is diverging over the last few sessions. As prices (at least on the DOW) nudge higher, breadth closes lower.
This thrust event is actually a tad weaker than the near miss back in August.  So that is consistent with a weakening market condition long term.

The previous ZBT near-miss in the summer event took prices from 1904 SPX all the way to 2019 SPX, a 115 point rise.

This current near-miss, which is already diverging, has taken prices from 1820 SPX all the way to 1865 SPX - a 145 point move.  Is this a last-gasp effort to keep the underlying rot from falling apart?  We shall see.
GDOW may hold the key: The long term chart shows the true nature of the wave structure since the 2009 low - it has been a three wave corrective.
The short term chart  Looking for {b] wave pullback?
SPX count sucks but lets roll with it for now. It has retraced almost to wave (ii) of [v].  It will take a close above the key 1970 mark to consider the "downtrend" conquered..

Friday, October 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 October 2014

Biggest two week rise since the 2009 low. Yet it didn't yet trigger a Zweig Breath Thrust Event. Not that it won't - it must do that on Monday's session as it is the 10th day. My point is, that despite a 144 SPX point rise in a mere 7.5 days, it has not triggered a "breadth thrust event".
Needs to finish above the .618 red line to trigger a ZBT event on Mionday or else the time limit will have passed. It just might. We'll see.
The prediction is that the SPX will reach 1970 SPX. Why? Because I forgot I have this labeled as an extended Minute [v] of 1 down. And per labeling if the extended wave is five of any known impulse, then the retrace should go back to the Minuette (ii) of [v] of 1 down. That is 1970.26 SPX. That is per EW Principles (Frost/Prechter)

And despite the amazing seven day rally it will take a close above 1970 SPX to break the downtrend!
NYSE. Also targeting wave two of five down.
Backtest of the Monthly Wilshire?
Closed inside the lower trendline. 
Global Dow may portend the true fate of prices over the next few weeks
Dollar exhibited the same long-term compression as the 6 month yield chart above. And it has seemingly broken out.
CRB at long term support.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 October 2014

No ZBT event just yet anyway.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 October 2014

NOTE: I relabeled the wave degrees on the charts to reflect better the likely wave degree due to time and price patterns over the last many weeks. (It can always be adjusted later if need be in the longer term).

The GDOW chart may be the best wave chart at the moment to where prices may head over the coming days and perhaps weeks.(I often cite how well the GDOW traces waves). I will be watching this one closely.

As was mentioned last night, the GDOW bounce was weaker. It also has traced probably the clearest wave pattern since its orthodox peak.

First the weekly chart shows a truncated peak (less than a point!).
The hourly chart reveals a very nice EW pattern to Minor 1 down.  It would be preferable if there was a three wave bounce for Minor 2 up.  That would probably take us right about into the U.S. political elections in early November
The NYSE also traces a good pattern down.  It has retraced deeper above 50% which is of course good wave 2 territory.
The SPX has been the strongest. It has retraced above the 61.8 Fib mark.  Obviously if the GDOW holds up through early November and traces a nice [a][b][c] pattern, the SPX is likely also to do well. The only rule is that wave 2 must finish beneath 2019.26 SPX (peak).

I don't like this short term count, but hey, it has a sort of nice expanding symmetry to it.
The DJIA chart is also interesting. Not quite an official "backtest" of the broken trendline of the ending diagonal wedge just yet. Prices didn't come close enough. Remember, it took a full year to build that wedge. It need only take a 3-4 months to collapse back beneath its start point for it to look right.  It doesn't need to do it in only a week or two!

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2014

It was about an 82% up day for the NYSE and 77% up ratio day for the NASDAQ Composite.  Our wave count from Friday is mangled a bit.

All we can say is that on a weekly scale, the market hit a lower Intermediate-sized channel line (green).  This has produced an Intermediate-sized bounce (perhaps).  The line was important for now.
The market has 4 days to produce another Zweigh Breadth Thrust event.  It would need to finish above .618. Not quite there yet. If it triggers, we must assume the market has a very good shot of going to new all-time highs at least for the Wilshire5000 and SPX.
The GDOW bounce is much less robust so far. There are divergences going on.
There is one other trendline that seems to be important and that is the down sloping line from peak. Possible count - take with a grain of salt.- just playing around at this stage. At .618 Fib, a wave [iii]?
Or the biggest expanding leading diagonal triangle you ever saw? Again, the down-sloping trendline is likely important to the bull/bear case. Many touch points. Look at the huge gap up!
I don't have any smart short term counts. Either the market is in some kind of wave two (or four) bounce that will reveal itself in the wave pattern at a later time, or the market made an Intermediate low and will trigger a ZBT event and eventually make new market highs.  Isn't wave analysis simple and logical?  :)

The lower green channel line on the weekly (first chart) was important.  The down sloping trendline from peak shown on the last two charts is also likely important.  

If we have any chance of a bear case, shit will have to hit the fan soon and prices must decline and decline hard. I don't like either bear charts for short term counts, but its the best I can come up with.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 October 2014

Wave [iv] cannot enter into wave [i]'s price range. For the sake of argument, we'll call that 1926.03 on the SPX.
Bounce counts as a double zigzag perhaps.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 October 2014

Wave [iv] bounce. Simplified the wave labels. Wave [ii] went "sideways", wave [iv] alternated and is sharp.
Closed beneath the 1904 weekly pivot.