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Friday, July 31, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 July 2015

Monday, July 27, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 July 2015

Blue 4 pivot is critical here.

Friday, July 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 July 2015

Its my birthday Sunday :) Looking forward to the weekend.

Prices are getting precarious for the Ending Diagonal Triangle count. The DJIA is teetering on a breakdown.
NYAD suggests the market is in fact breaking apart. A bit of a break in the long-term channel line.
Note the Alt count. If wave 5 has topped in an ED pattern, then there will likely be some swift downside coming. A break beneath Blue 4 would be bearish.
6 month:
Channel lines.
Global Dow clearly under the trendline.
If Gold has further to fall, I suspect it finds support at the $1033 - 1045 range.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 July 2015

Counts best as [b] wave weakness.
Gold. The call is that a big rally is around the corner. Support lies at $1033-1045.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 July 2015

The ideal wave pattern would be an ending diagonal triangle. I speculated that the triangle wedge had ended where BLUE 3 is marked but alas the market never collapsed in price due to exhaustion. So one must assume that the ED wedge triangle is not yet finished.

An ideal wave count for the last squiggles would look something like this:

Zooming in we can see the count:
The same chart but with overlays illustrating the market's tendency to alternate between simple and complex wave structures:
The DJIA shown in the same count:
Channels. You can see if there is any appreciable market weakness, prices will not only likely break through the lower blue channel, but the longer-term green channel as well.  Which would of course likely take prices down to the red line and lower black channel line.
Speaking of channel lines:
6 month yield count is technically setting up much like the way the dollar did:
The dollar chart. Looks a lot like that 6 month yield setup above:

Monday, July 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 July 2015

Gold made a new low today as was predicted with the count.  The wave structure suggests a really big bounce is somewhere near.
Ideal Wilshire count would be:
Gold's long-term chart shows what could be solid horizontal price support at $1033-$1044 range. Sentiment is pretty bleak and that supports the notion of a strong multi-month rally.

Say what you will about my wave counting on the indexes over the last few years. However Gold, and the Dollar have been fairly solid counts that have worked out well over the long term..

Friday, July 17, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 July 2015

If wave 5 is the count, an ideal ending would look something like this: 

Which implies we won't see a top until the end of summer or so.
Particularly negative breadth for at best, a "flat" day of trading.
Gold in the expanded flat count I suggested last week.
The dollar:

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2015

Wave (iii) down should be on deck.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 July 2015

Technically, the market finished higher than the violent 90% day gap down day of 29 June. That means the 90% down day has been negated.

NYSE has not closed its gap though
Unless tomorrow prices collapse almost immediately and violently, then this count below is looking suspect as wave (ii). However, its still viable.
Revamped count. It essentially says the same thing as yesterday's count, that wave [ii] is nearly over. The count makes more sense this way time-wise.
Of course if the market insists on making new market highs, then this is the top count. An unfinished ending diagonal and we are in wave 5 of (5).

Monday, July 13, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 July 2015

Top alt count is that the Ending Diagonal Triangle is not yet complete.