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Friday, October 30, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 October 2015

Updating our squiggle chart, proposed wave [c] is .589 times the length of wave [a].  Nearly a very nice .618 Fibonacci ratio. Very nice considering we are talking about an overall span of 2173 points.
Tweaked the channel line a bit.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 October 2015

Lets look at the proposed Minor wave 2 squiggles. In the Wilshire 5000, we have a nice Fibonacci symmetry going on.

Obviously if this count is incorrect and the market intends to eventually go on and make new all-time highs, then this count will turn out to be grossly wrong. For if wave [a] is actually wave [i] of a new impulse and wave [b] is really wave [ii] and wave [c] is actually an unfolding wave [iii] instead, then wave [iii] is going a lot higher and I have shortchanged the count by a whole whole lot.

Thats all fine and dandy if it happens. However as it stands right now, this is the best squiggle count on short, medium and long term scale. I'm not an active day trader but based on this count, if the market pops a small bit up tomorrow completing wave v of (v) of [c] of 2 - and internals are looking weak - then its an excellent place to try to buy a short position in my opinion and even hold it over the weekend. At least to see if the count pans out. If not, well then that's why you set a stop loss that you can live with.
Hence the medium term scale:

And long term channel lines. Thats a nice hit on the underside of the green channel. And hey, if the market can break back above that and hold, heck it deserves new all-time highs I'm not gonna cry about it! Thats the market and it ain't never wrong.
Kid with a ruler.
GDOW. Not yet back to 61.8% retrace.

Good Luck!

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 October 2015

Probably has touched the underside of the lower channel line as had expected.
Short term guess count:
Medium Term chart. Head and shoulders pattern?

Monday, October 26, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 October 2015

Still looking for a touch on the lower green channel line. Not much more to go.
And that touch would match our short term count.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 October 2015

We have been showing a deep retrace pattern for the Wilshire 5000. However, didn't think it would occur so quickly. But it has. So the best count is shown below.
Looking for a hit on the underside of the lower green channel line

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 October 2015

[Updated the top chart]
Best guess count for now. 

This potential head and shoulder pattern as charted below needs more time to fully develop. 

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2015

There seems to be mounting evidence of wave [b] of Minor 2 pullback. There is a possibility that wave 2 high is in, but time-wise and wave structure-wise, it would look better if we had a [b] wave pullback followed by [c] wave advance. This structure would show itself nicely on a daily and even weekly chart.  A nice time ratio would be 3:2 which takes us to nearly December or into December.

Also there is a strong wave tendency that's nearly universal for wave 2's to retrace into the previous subwave [i] of 1 price range. So Minor 2 peak would ideally be within the price range of Minute [i] of 1 which occurred at approx 21.6K. The "virgin" wave space was breached as expected but not yet completely filled.
GDOW had rallied 50% from peak.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 October 2015

Wave [a] of 2 may have topped out today. Still anticipate a decent wave [b] pullback. The SPX filled a gap.
6 month yield count. Higher highs and higher lows.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 October 2015

Has wave [a] of 2 topped out yet?

Friday, October 16, 2015

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Elliott Wave Update - 15 October 2015

Perhaps a regular flat or an expanded flat for wave [b] of 2.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. An example of price action for an expanded flat would be tomorrow would gap up in the morning and then reverse fairly quickly and selloff somewhere into the [b] wave target box outlined below (maybe taking a few days to get down there).

Note that price action is bumping up against the blue channel line again. Seems important.
Gold finally broke over a significant downtrend line.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 October 2015

We got what appears to be the beginning of a developing [b] wave retrace.
Low price target for [b] wave ideally would fall somewhere in the black box. Note how wave [a] met the dotted underside of the lower channel line created by the initial waves [i] and [ii] of Minor 1 down.
Here is the WLSH chart again showing a potentially glorious head and shoulder pattern in the development.
Note resistance clusters at the underside of the broken up channel and horizontal resistance. Would be a textbook location for Minor wave 2 to end. Of course things hardly ever go textbook.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 October 2015

We'll call today the top of wave [a] of 2 seems to be a decent count for now. Looking for wave [b] weakness.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 October 2015

I apologize for the last two weeks of erratic posts. My brother died of cancer and his funeral was on Friday. The week before I was travelling.

Best count is that the market is in Minor wave 2 up and we are trying to confirm the peak of wave [a] of 2. Then there should be some wave [b] weakness, followed by wave [c] of 2.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 October 2015

Yay, I'm back from travelling! No more crappy connections and compatibility problems.

The top wave count is that the market is in Minor wave 2 up.  Today was a very strong day internally which supports the notion that a new structure (minor 2) is now in development. I realize the other indices do not have a 5 wave structure down but the most important index (my opinion) is that the Wilshire 5000 does display 5 clear waves down.

The general thinking is that Minor wave 2 will eventually carry at least a Fibonacci 61.8% back from peak. I actually expect it to eventually reach a bit more than 61.8% retrace.  We shall see, its been a bumpy market.
Wilshire weekly has very cool trendlines. That lower black channel line did indeed contain prices.
And of course the GDOW also displays 5 waves down and the best count has it in a wave 2 rebound.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 October 2015

No firm conviction either way short term. There are at least 5 waves down in the Wilshire 5000.  See the last post for the chart. The subdivisions of Minute [v] of Minor 1 down does not count well as yet complete.  However, its good enough if that's the case.

I'm on travel through Friday and have technical issues posting charts perhaps due to limited connectivity and bandwidth.

But I suspect its just trying to use Windows 8.1 10  "Edge" browser with Google BlogSpot which I don't ever do.  And I suspect they make it broken on purpose of course. I have no time to work through the issues. Will do so tomorrow sorry got to run!