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Friday, December 30, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 December 2016

Probably;y the best count for now is below. We have a key price level still in place.

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 December 2016

The below count may be the best count at the moment. We have raised the key price marker for the count.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 20 December 2016

The GDOW count is important. If the GDOW makes a new recovery high above its 2015 high, it would be a big problem to count.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 16 December 2016

In log scale, wave 3 is not yet the shortest. That would imply that the ending diagonal triangle pattern is not quite dead. In arithmetic scale the pattern is violated and void. 

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 15 December 2016

Placing the Fibonacci pattern over the Wilshire in either log scale or non-log scale produces the same targets. Naturally the channeling is a bit different since we have moved an extreme amount over a very long time period. Yet the 50% marker aligns eerily with the virgin space of the middle of the structure. The virgin wave space is where there are no price violations prior to, or after the virgin space.

Log Scale:
Non-Log Scale:

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 14 December 2016

Rate hike today as expected.  Target range .50 - .75.
Wilshire weekly. I don't have a good count yet but we'll figure it out soon enough.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 13 December 2016

Our ending diagonal count is out the window because wave 3 is the shortest. We did get a crisp trendline hit though.
Even the GDOW count is under risk of getting blown up.
6 month count.
3 month yield. My guess is the Fed will raise rates tomorrow 1/8 basis (.125) points based on the 3 month yield. That'll put their rate target range to .375 - .625. I would be surprised if they did more than that.
The market is due for a pullback at the least. As EWI pointed out the DJIA is the most overbought in 20 years on a daily basis using 14 day RSI.
Despite the historic runup, the NYSE did not experience any kind of Zweig Breadth Thrust event.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 9 December 2016

We have been saying the ending diagonal count cannot go higher than 23780 because that would make wave 3 the shortest which is a violation of Elliott Wave counting rules. Today's high was 23,679. So we don't have much more room for the below count.

We were also looking for a hit on the upper channel line.
The confidence in the counts above being correct is fairly low. The market has surged in a historic momentum drive and usually this momentum drive takes a while to dissipate.

However we have an excellent potential trade setup here which I am not recommending although merely mentioning how you can use wave patterns to determine your trade setups.

Since Wilshire 23780 is the maximum this wave count can still be valid, you could do a massive short tomorrow with your stop being 23780. This is only 100 Wilshire points from today's close. Its an excellent setup risk/reward scenario. In fact I plan on doing just this if things present themselves as such.

Under this scenario the market would reverse shy of this mark with a solid trendline touch which you can see is not quite happening yet under the 30 minute and daily charts.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 8 December 2016

Per EW rules, the market cannot go higher than about 23,780 or this count is invalid because wave 3 cannot be the shortest. We have some more room but today's high was 23,609. Looking for a channel line hit on both charts.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 7 December 2016

On the 22 November update, we explained that the overall (5) can go to 23,780 before it would be an invalid count due to wave 3 becoming the shortest wave. We still have some room before that occurs.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 6 December 2016

Wilshire made a new high today so we have a new count.
GDOW count is tweaked also.
Will we just keep floating upwards until the 8 year Fibonacci time in early March 2017?

Friday, December 2, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 December 2016

Still a possible count. We'll see.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 29 Novemeber 2016

Once scenario has the market just crapping around the highs in some kind of ending diagonal triangle for another many weeks and/or months. This would make time relationships between waves look good and on top of that, a Fibonacci 8 year up cycle would be ideal.
Another possible count is that the high has occurred. Significant tops have usually been long-winded affairs so patience is again required.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 28 November 2016

Solid close under the narrow up channel.  There are enough waves in place to call it a complete pattern. But we shall see.

Friday, November 25, 2016

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 23 November 2016

Not much to add to the things we have been saying for the last many weeks.
Gold has reached our major support target. Sentiment is very negative on its outlook.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 22 November 2016

The chart below suggests the maximum wave 5 of (5) of [5] can go is 23,780. However the shorter wave counts do not align with this higher number. If the market does go that high, then the squiggle counts (last 2 charts) are incorrect.
However shorter wave charts suggests the "right look" is occurring right about now. The next 2 charts show how Minor 5 may be a quick burst with a (v) of [v] of 5 as an extended fifth wave.  Since wave [iii] is not much longer than wave [I], we can expect wave [v] to be the extended wave of the structure. This is how you would properly count that situation: