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Friday, January 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 29 January 2016

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 27 January 2016

Adding to our charts yesterday. Note how the VIX has "reset" to a much lower volatility level versus the August panic. Prices are lower than in August (and yet had fell pretty much the same amount) yet the VIX did not reach panic levels on the recent decline. This is an example I think of how the market works off oversold and works off overpanic via time. This fits perfectly in how wave theory unfolds.  The market seems to be setting itself up for a very big downdraft but in the meantime, the squiggles must play out first.

Best count options below:
The eventual big selling downdraft would be the downside target of the broken head and shoulders pattern for starters. Since it would be a "third of a third" - wave [iii] of 3 - it should be more panic than in August, and thus the VIX should go higher than in August.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 26 January 2016

This chart sums up the best count options. Wave (iv) may have peaked but after today's strong up day, that doesn't seem likely at the moment.  A backtest of the broken neckline would be a good place to start for bets I suppose for a wave (iv) target.

Note that the top ALT count target box - Minute [ii] of wave 3 down - overlaps with the primary count of wave (iv) of [i] down. So we'll just have to let things play out as they must.
Weekly View
Another view of the best count options using a shorter time scale and a bunch of channels to see if they can help.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 25 January 2016

Trying to figure out if wave (iv) of [i] down has peaked or not.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 22 January 2016

Long tailed doji weekly candlestick pattern. This implies prices will not revisit the recent low this past week for a while. Market needs time to shake out short term bearish sentiment. This doesn't imply that the market will continue on a 'rip-your-face-off-rally' (note: its already did last 2 days).  It does imply that a new trading range has been reached and prices could be oscillating within that for a week or more with pokes higher above.

Backtest of the pink neckline seems likely sooner or later.
What's key is the wave count. Best guess count below. Already bottomed in wave [i] of 3? It would count better if the market revisited the recent low within a few weeks time.
Oil may have finally bottomed in wave (3). Kind of a falling wedge pattern (with overthrow)  that implies prices will rebound quicker than anyone expects. 60$ is not out of the question eventually in the next few months.
GDOW also a long tailed doji weekly candlestick pattern. It hit long term horizontal support. I don't suspect prices will make new lows any time soon. But eventually the primary wave count will win out - if it is correct - and they will.
Looking for $103 on the dollar based on the wave count and pattern target before a significant pullback. Might be pushing things. If it gets that high look for headline bullish stories on why the dollar is the greatest thing on earth. Then expect a pullback - sentiment is very high and needs to shake out.

Gold is either going to have 1 more quick bust to a new low to complete the ending diagonal triangle pattern or it has completed already. The next few days should reveal hopefully.
CPCE suggests an interim low. Note how 2009 was a whole bunch of spikes. I expect the same to happen here. By the time the bear market is lower this average is going to eventually go over 1 and stay there for a long time. We are very far away from that but this gives you perspective of how harsh the bear market is predicted to be.
6 month count. After a recent pullback and pause, it may be ready to explode higher in yield some more. We are in wave three of some degree so that would make sense. That's going to drag the 3 month count higher and the Fed may be forced to raise rates again in March even if they don't want to.

Have a great weekend and try not to trash my comments section too much! And for those so offended just learn to ignore it. I did.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 20 January 2016

What a rollercoaster huh? I'll start with the Wilshire trendlines and channel lines.

Big bounce off the red channel line. That must mean it is important. After all, that is the trendline that has captured the entire rally since 2009.
The H&S pattern:
Best guess wave count is that we are somewhere in the lower end of [i] of 3 down.
GDOW has reached prices touched in late 2009 and early 2010. Note the pink support though.
INDU has broken beneath the channel in log scale.
And non-log:

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 January 2016

Market managed to close positive but market internals were decidedly negative as of the NYSE.
Downside target of the broken head and shoulder pattern is shown. How many gyrations to get there? Everyone seems to be in 100% agreement the market is oversold short term but yet it hasn't rebounded like it "should" at least not yet. It may yet tomorrow for all we know.  This morning futures was up around 45 points off its low yet that didn't yield much at the end of the day. I can only say that the wave count is in wave 3 down and that is the strongest wave in an EW count and we that is what we go with.

But a backtest of the broken neckline would not be out of the question, yet certainly not required. Hang on either way.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 14 January 2016

The Wilshire always produces the best channels and trendlines it seems which is why I use it. Best count has the market in a wave (iv) of [i] of 3 down.
Massive head and shoulders. And the Wilshire has not been able to maintain the neckline.
Another example of the superior trend and channel lines the Wilshire produces. can you imagine where prices would go if both the blue base channel and lower red channel line broke decisively? Market needs to work itself up to that over time.
Looking for 1 more low in Gold before a huge Intermediate sized countertrend rally up.
DJIA breaking down in non-log scale however log scale has held up so far.
GDOW. Probably the best overall wave count representing a worldwide social mood count.
Note the tight up channels are no longer intact.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 12 January 2016

One of my favorite wave count charts.
Despite the up day, market internals were a bit negative.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 11 January 2016

Dipping beneath the neckline
One more gold low would complete the pattern nicely. That would be around the $1000 price point.
Horizontal support has held and the potential contracting triangle pattern is intact.