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Monday, February 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 February 2016

The Head and Shoulders neckline continues to be resistance.
The wave count has traced enough counter-trend waves to be considered finished. However, it is never that easy.
One thing though that is exciting is that the market is potentially coming up on a "third of a third" wave down. We have had these situations before since the 2009 low but obviously it hasn't panned out and the market always went on to new highs. Well here we are again.  The wave count allows for prices to continue to correct upwards in both price and time, but the main point here is that we may be close to an all-out market collapse which a 3rd of a 3rd calls for.
Monthly candle pattern is a very long-legged - albeit slightly losing- doji candle pattern. Bulls would interpret this as that the bears beat prices down but were thwarted. Bears would interpret this as the bulls "gave it their all" but cannot overcome the oncoming bear. We shall see.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 26 February 2016

Challenging the neckline again. Still acting as resistance.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 24 February 2016

One possible count.
Today's price low is a key pivot support level.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 23 February 2016

There are too many squiggle options to mention. There needs to be more waves traced out before we can get a better count on the short term.
However, what needs to be paid attention to is the broken neckline on the Wilshire 5000 chart. This is why I like to use the Wilshire for patterns, channels and wave counts.

Prices have gapped up big just to get up here.  the neckline is resistance for now. Note the downside target for the head and shoulder pattern.
The equivalent price move on the SPX would probably take the S&P500 to the 1610-1660 area in a stair step move down.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 22 February 2016

Proposed wave (a) of [ii] seems to be taking the form of a zigzag.

The market has retraced a bit over a Fibonacci 38.2% of the peak of wave 2 but not quite 38.2% of the absolute peak.

Note that prices are coming up on the underside of the neckline. Would be a logical stoping point for the peak of wave (a).
Technically speaking, if wave (a) is a zigzag and wave (c) is a zigzag, you have a double zigzag forming minute [ii] which would be correctly labeled (w)-(x)-(y).  But that's getting way ahead of things. What matters is we expected a sharp price rise and there is room for a lot more to hit our Minute [ii] in time and price as shown in the green target box above.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 18 February 2016

Lets just review a few charts.  First, the primary count is that the market is in Minute wave [ii] of Minor 3 down. 5 Minor waves will eventually form Intermediate wave (1) down. And (5) Intermediate waves will form Primary wave [1] down of [5] Primary waves of cycle wave c.

See the wave hierarchy table on the lower area of the left side of this blog if your confused.

Starting with the monthly thus:
Hourly. Has wave (a) of [ii] up topped?
Well I plotted a potential squiggle count which is worth doing since the price move over 3 days was very significant. It counts pretty neatly so what the heck.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 17 February 2017

Despite the massive gap ups the last few days, the market has not quite rallied a Fibonacci 38% of its recent 5 wave decline. But today was the strongest day so there may be some eventual carry through to complete wave (a) of Minute [ii] up of Minor 3 down.
Playing around with long term oil count for bow. Its hastily put together but it doesn't change the medium term wave pattern.  Lots of long term alts.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 16 February 2016

So far our primary count of Minute [ii] of Minor 3 seems to be holding up.
After Minute [ii] tops, the real market panic is called for in the wave count. It would wave [iii] of 3 down which would be the most intense selling of Intermediate wave (1).

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 11 February 2016

Lets review what we have so far. The market has dropped in a 5 wave pattern from peak to mark the end of Minor wave 1 in September. It then rallied in a 3 wave pattern to form Minor wave 2.  After that peak, it dropped to lower lows again in a 5 wave pattern to today's low.  Today may mark the price low of Minute wave [i] of Minor 3 down.

Therefore the wave count allows for a very aggressive rally from here to form Minute [ii]. It does not have to happen, but it would be ideal if it did.
A more detailed look at Minute [i] of Minor 3 down. Note that wave (v) of [i] has a bit of overlap in waves i and iv. That could portend a very sharp rally.
Global Dow is pretty much the same count.
I mentioned the other day that it appeared the ending diagonal triangle in gold had ended and therefore expect a sharp price rise to the upside. Looks like that's what we are getting.
Long term count shows the potential of a significant gold rally from here.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 9 February 2016

Updating our charts. most of today looked like corrective sideways waves back and forth.  That fits nicely into our primary count of a wave (iv) of [i] of 3 down.
10 day MA has not reached panic yet.