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Friday, July 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 29 July 2016

We got the expected break to new highs

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 28 July 2016

The narrow range held again today

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 27 July 2016

Interesting short term chart suggests a consolidation and pop higher. Not sure of the wave degree labels thats not important at the moment. But its interesting to note that Wilshire prices are not above the June 2015 high. (the Wilshire did squeak a new high recently in 2016 though) They are trying to pop over and breakout.  The wave count suggests it will happen at least for the short term.
This weekly gives you an idea of the resistance the total market is up against. The odds are in favor that it will indeed pop over resistance. And then it could run a bit more for sure.
Which implies this long term count below - which is Robert Prechter's primary count of Elliott Wave International (click my links to the left for free material if you become a club member - also free!) would pan out.

So around election time or maybe inauguration time (pick your conspiracy theory if you like!) they collapse the markets. Well anyway, the count would be due to reverse. Its been a tremendous rise since 2009.  It will be a speculator decline.
Yet its interesting the amount of disconnect between major US indices and other indices. So things are at a crossroads.
For instance the GDOW count - by Elliott Wave rule - cannot be in a wave 5 higher of any degree. So this gives serious pause to the idea of the markets drifting higher for a few months more as shown in the monthly Wilshire above.
30 Year:
6 month count. Major yield inversion coming?

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 26 July 2016

Its my birthday. Just glad to be here another year. My advice: Don't wish your life away like that movie "Click".

Looks like some kind of wave 4 developing and it will pop higher.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 25 July 2016

We expect another push upwards. The wave since (2) does not count complete yet.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 21 July 2016

GDOW is significant in that the wave [A] peak has been breeched by the recent downturn marked at 2033 labeled (1) down. So by Elliott Wave rule, the GDOW primary count cannot be a wave 5 of any degree going to new highs.  It would have to be something else. This is why we should pause on the counts for now.
The same overlap does not exist on the NYSE yet it is still lagging badly. yet the count allows for an alternate that it can make a new high and then we would probably label it as a large 5 wave move since its 2009 low.
A curious pattern in the DJIA. We'll keep an eye on it.
Everybody talks of a breakout but the "total" market - Wilshire 5000 - is back beneath its 2015 highs. Yet the Wilshire rise since the low earlier this year is an unsatisfying count at the moment.  It cannot be resolved neatly in its current form unless my wave labels of (1) and (2) are accurate which implies a whole lot more rallying will occur the rest of this year. In any case, there is more work to be done probably to resolve things one way or another. 

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 20 July 2016

The Wilshire finally took out its 2015 high today. If we align the count with Robert Prechter's primary Dow count of a cycle wave taking place this is what the count would look like. I hesitate because sentiment is very high at the moment and a decent correction is due.

This count infers much more price advance over the coming months which very well could happen but I'd like to see how sentiment and price shakes over the next few days/weeks out first. Then we'll go from there.
A major reason is that key sub-indices have yet to even take out there highs including the NASDAQ100, the Global Dow and the NYSE composite. So there is a significant negative divergence going on.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 19 July 2016

Almost there
GDOW has no yet taken out its 18 April high. The count would look really good if it did which I suspect it will.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 18 July 2016

The only odd thing I can say about the Wilshire is that, as reported by Elliott Wave International, the Daily Sentiment Index ( hit a very bullish 87% last Thursday.  Yet the Wilshire has not yet taken out its previous all-time high. Mind you it probably will because the wave subdivisions suggest that prices will eventually go higher but it is nonetheless a curious thing.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 July 2016

I'm pretty sure this count will be wrong and we get a new Wilshire high soon enough.
Which implies the chart below.
However the GDOW weekly is lagging and implies that it will not make a new high.
Wow, 6 uncovered gaps up in the last few weeks.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 July 2016

Yeah. Doggedly hanging to this count until the bitter end.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 July 2016

Dow made a new high today. But the market is stretched.  The Wilshire has not yet made a new high so we are clinging to the primary count but barely.
But the divergences we have been showing still exist in spades. 
Bond yields hit the lower wedge line and bounced. If this is an ending diagonal triangle expect a sharp rise in yields in a very short amount of time. There may be one more spasm lower, but that is no guarantee.
6 month yield count is supportive of a thrust higher out of a triangle. This will tend to drag the 3 month yield higher and thus spark another Fed interest rate raise which if they did in September I think would be utterly brutal toward the financial situation of the world's debt problems. Banks are already stressed in Europe. A long term trend that won't be fixed.
Yes the NYSE cumulative has gone vertical but the actual underlying index price has not yet made a new high.
Of course the Global Dow lags the most.
Gold is due for a pullback. Bullish sentiment is very high.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2016

The count remains bearish because there is a significant disconnect between markets. Yields at an all-time low and European banks faltering. Many uncovered gaps up. Social mood seems to be deteriorating with the whole BLM thing and cop shootings and riots. Well, we'll see I guess.

Friday, July 8, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 8 July 2016

Lots of charts tonight.
Top Alternate:
Exuberance in the S&P yet divergences clearly exist:
My favorite wave count.
Negative rates "are here to stay" so to speak.  I beg to differ. I can see an inverted yield curve coming possibly, because the 6 month yield is not cooperating with the negative yield sentiment.
Ending diagonal triangle?
How long will all those recent gaps ups in the S&P stay intact?