Custom Search

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 September 2019

The market doesn't really have any clear cut wave structure primary count. The last update showed a very nice triangle but that was so obvious that it didn't pan out. Triangles are usually more subtle.  All I can post is some trendlines, channel lines, and other such potential triangles for the short/medium term.
However, the longer term count hasn't changed. It is implied that eventually a higher market high will occur no matter the short term gyrations.


Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 September 2019

It has been triangulating. That would imply its consolidating for a thrust downward.
Which also implies that the short term is corrective and thus the intermediate is to finish the wave structure higher.


Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 August 2019

Dog days of summer. Yes the market has been gyrating a bit but in the scheme of the bigger picture the trading ranges that have been established are well intact.

There isn't a great short or medium term count so I haven't posted one in a while. At these times its best to use trendlines, support, resistance, and channels to feel where we may be in the short term.

Red circle is still a  probable target. If not then some kind of triangle is forming that keeps prices above the June 2019 28.1K price pivot low.

Long term count still supposes major support is kept and the market eventually works toward another breakout to finish [5] long term.

Friday, August 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 August 2019

Gold fulfilled the long predicted blue box retrace area.
The Fed is going to cut rates again because they follow the market.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 July 2019

The thing that still strikes me most is how overbought the market in early 2018 had become on a weekly basis. This best fits into a subwave three peak within a wave three. That would be [iii] of 5 of (3) in this case.  It seems the last 18 months the market has been working off that extreme overbought situation thereby setting itself up for one final push in what we have labeled wave 3 of (5).

Amazingly the overbought has been worked off and prices are higher than the peak overbought price of early 2018. Hence the overall primary count.

However we may get some sharp weakness and selling first to form wave [ii] of 3 first. I have no decent subwave count just yet.   We just have to be patient.
In log scale the waveform looks a bit different. Some would argue its actually a huge double zigzag since the 2009 low because it has 3 major correctives rather than an impulse 5 wave move which has only 2. And I wouldn't argue. I have made many a point that this entire rise since 2009 is built on a huge "B" wave and not a true impulse which makes it a gigantic corrective wave in social mood which implies social mood is still quite sour and merely taking a break prior to the real dirty civil war which seems a course this nation is headed. Who can argue that it is not a corrective?

In any case it matters not. The outcome seems the same. We peak and then the collapse.
Gold looks like a good count:
Or something more drawn out:

Monday, July 15, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2019

Still the primary count. Don't have a good squiggle option at the moment.

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 July 2019

This count has moved to the top due to the new highs being achieved.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 June 2019

The top 2 bullish counts are presented below.

This one is more muted. A developing triangle in a complex correction.

But based on the strong upflow this week, this may be correct in that we have kicked off wave 3 of (5). If the market busts out to new highs this count is the one to watch.


Gold's long-term count seems to be panning out. Remember, the blue box zone is the minimum target area for wave (C) of [B].

Long term yield retest of the breakout?



Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2019

The count I am primarily tracking is presented below.


Monday, June 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 June 2019

Sorry was on vacation, haven't posted for  awhile. It seems to me that the market has been in an extended effort to make new highs. However, resistance is formidable. I was playing around with some wave counts and this is the one of the interesting ones that stood out.

From a support/resistance standpoint it makes sense. The final triangle would be the stored energy needed to finally push over to a higher high. However the "thrust" may be short lived.

We'll see. Squiggles do not lend itself to anything more definitive at the moment.


Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 May 2019

Still the primary count. Time-wise the target box keeps moving but the general form and structure remains the same.

Monday, May 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2019

Things are developing finally

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 May 2019

Finally something interesting. My chart from 2 weeks ago. Timing took longer but lets see how it plays out:

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 April 2019

Market keeps pushing for a new high which is the primary count overall and has been for quite some time.

How it gets there is the question.


Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 April 2019

There is no great squiggle count for now so I can only emphasize the overall count in that a new high will eventually be made.
This still might be the best squiggle count in that we are due for a huge pullback. Maybe a "Sell in May, and go away?" type selloff or at least a muted one.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 April 2019

Not a whole lot of movement within the last week. The count remains the same.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 April 2019

Still looking at a possible expanding Minor 2 flat tracing out. Due for a big pullback.


Monday, April 1, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 Apr 2019

The squiggle count is muddled so we can zoom back on the overall primary count. The primary count is that eventually new highs will occur.
 

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March 2019

Our primary count is below. If it is correct, we have likely seen the top of wave [b] of Minor blue 2
Squiggles supports this. Things have gotten very choppy which indicates exhaustion in the near term.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 March 2019

Things are not easy to count at the moment. Best count is that Minor 2 is forming some kind of flat/expanded flat or something that will evolve in a more
complex manner soon to come.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 March 2019

Primary count is that Minor wave 1 has topped and pullback for Minor 2 has begun.
Overall count:
And in log scale, you can better see the long term wave relationships and channels. The above weekly chart appears to have grossly weird wave structures but log scale smooths things out.
Another log scale chart. Note how the peaks of wave labels (1) and (3) and then (2) and (4) form a nice elliott wave channel.




Monday, March 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March 2019

We will call today's high the top of Minor 1 of (5). Looking for a significant pullback for Minor 2 to develop.

Monday, February 25, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 February 2019

Sorry for not posting lately but was on vacation. I'm back now.

However the wave structure has not rvealed itself overall yet.

On the weekly scale, we haven't yet had any kind of pullback we can call blue Minor 2  up
And the short term is just as muddled. Imminent sharp pullback for Minor 2 of (5) or do we just go straight to (5)?   In either case, we are calling for a new top its just a matter of the wave count in how we get there.