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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 December 2019

I have a count again.  Not much different than other major counts in the past but trying to make sense of the past 2 years or so. This supposes the last segments of 5 of (5) of [5] play out in some kind of ending diagonal.  
That would imply a sharp drop is just about upon us down to 4 of (5).  The alternate count is that red wave (5) continues advancing in a more normal manner for a longer period of time with no overlapping of waves 1 and 4. 
Comments are not working for now. I'll try to get them going again in the future except they will be moderated much more closely than before. No timeline on that for now.

All I can say is that I am happy to be blogging wave structures and counts again, and look forward to posting a whole hell of a lot more than I have been. Somtimes life doesn't afford us time for our hobbies.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 Decemeber 2019

There's not a great count for all of this. So sometimes its just better to draw a bunch of trendlines, support, resistance, and channels and see how prices react.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 November 2019

Yay glad to be back! Sorry about the no posts for a while, I was a bit busy but that should change from here on out.

We did break upward as the contracting triangle suggested.
Gold consolidating for another move higher?
Compressing yields for many years.  Gigantic falling wedge.
Another look at the Gold count with a variation from above
6 Month yields.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 October 2019

Like an 18th century sailing ship floating in calm waters that has no wind.   Prices are at the point of where they were back in January 2018. Back down to the lower support circle to form a wave 2? Otherwise prices have held support in a multi-month triangle action. If the triangle holds, there should be a breakout higher.

As concerning social mood, it seems very, very negative at the moment particularly with the Trump impeachment frenzy reaching a crescendo. This seems to support that the long sideways 18-19+ month social mood correction (negative) is nearing its end and a breakout higher would be in order.

I'm most definitely not ruling out a sharp, shot down toward the lower blue circle area for starters in a big head fake. The long, long, term support is the red channel that is shown.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 September 2019

Still not a very good situation for a short/medium term count. The market is however near all-time highs holding support.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 September 2019

The market doesn't really have any clear cut wave structure primary count. The last update showed a very nice triangle but that was so obvious that it didn't pan out. Triangles are usually more subtle.  All I can post is some trendlines, channel lines, and other such potential triangles for the short/medium term.
However, the longer term count hasn't changed. It is implied that eventually a higher market high will occur no matter the short term gyrations.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 September 2019

It has been triangulating. That would imply its consolidating for a thrust downward.
Which also implies that the short term is corrective and thus the intermediate is to finish the wave structure higher.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 August 2019

Dog days of summer. Yes the market has been gyrating a bit but in the scheme of the bigger picture the trading ranges that have been established are well intact.

There isn't a great short or medium term count so I haven't posted one in a while. At these times its best to use trendlines, support, resistance, and channels to feel where we may be in the short term.

Red circle is still a  probable target. If not then some kind of triangle is forming that keeps prices above the June 2019 28.1K price pivot low.

Long term count still supposes major support is kept and the market eventually works toward another breakout to finish [5] long term.

Friday, August 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 August 2019

Gold fulfilled the long predicted blue box retrace area.
The Fed is going to cut rates again because they follow the market.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 July 2019

The thing that still strikes me most is how overbought the market in early 2018 had become on a weekly basis. This best fits into a subwave three peak within a wave three. That would be [iii] of 5 of (3) in this case.  It seems the last 18 months the market has been working off that extreme overbought situation thereby setting itself up for one final push in what we have labeled wave 3 of (5).

Amazingly the overbought has been worked off and prices are higher than the peak overbought price of early 2018. Hence the overall primary count.

However we may get some sharp weakness and selling first to form wave [ii] of 3 first. I have no decent subwave count just yet.   We just have to be patient.
In log scale the waveform looks a bit different. Some would argue its actually a huge double zigzag since the 2009 low because it has 3 major correctives rather than an impulse 5 wave move which has only 2. And I wouldn't argue. I have made many a point that this entire rise since 2009 is built on a huge "B" wave and not a true impulse which makes it a gigantic corrective wave in social mood which implies social mood is still quite sour and merely taking a break prior to the real dirty civil war which seems a course this nation is headed. Who can argue that it is not a corrective?

In any case it matters not. The outcome seems the same. We peak and then the collapse.
Gold looks like a good count:
Or something more drawn out:

Monday, July 15, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2019

Still the primary count. Don't have a good squiggle option at the moment.

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 July 2019

This count has moved to the top due to the new highs being achieved.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 June 2019

The top 2 bullish counts are presented below.

This one is more muted. A developing triangle in a complex correction.

But based on the strong upflow this week, this may be correct in that we have kicked off wave 3 of (5). If the market busts out to new highs this count is the one to watch.

Gold's long-term count seems to be panning out. Remember, the blue box zone is the minimum target area for wave (C) of [B].

Long term yield retest of the breakout?

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2019

The count I am primarily tracking is presented below.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 June 2019

Sorry was on vacation, haven't posted for  awhile. It seems to me that the market has been in an extended effort to make new highs. However, resistance is formidable. I was playing around with some wave counts and this is the one of the interesting ones that stood out.

From a support/resistance standpoint it makes sense. The final triangle would be the stored energy needed to finally push over to a higher high. However the "thrust" may be short lived.

We'll see. Squiggles do not lend itself to anything more definitive at the moment.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 May 2019

Still the primary count. Time-wise the target box keeps moving but the general form and structure remains the same.

Monday, May 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2019

Things are developing finally

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 May 2019

Finally something interesting. My chart from 2 weeks ago. Timing took longer but lets see how it plays out:

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 April 2019

Market keeps pushing for a new high which is the primary count overall and has been for quite some time.

How it gets there is the question.

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 April 2019

There is no great squiggle count for now so I can only emphasize the overall count in that a new high will eventually be made.
This still might be the best squiggle count in that we are due for a huge pullback. Maybe a "Sell in May, and go away?" type selloff or at least a muted one.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 April 2019

Not a whole lot of movement within the last week. The count remains the same.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 April 2019

Still looking at a possible expanding Minor 2 flat tracing out. Due for a big pullback.

Monday, April 1, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 Apr 2019

The squiggle count is muddled so we can zoom back on the overall primary count. The primary count is that eventually new highs will occur.