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Monday, July 15, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2019

Still the primary count. Don't have a good squiggle option at the moment.

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 July 2019

This count has moved to the top due to the new highs being achieved.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 June 2019

The top 2 bullish counts are presented below.

This one is more muted. A developing triangle in a complex correction.

But based on the strong upflow this week, this may be correct in that we have kicked off wave 3 of (5). If the market busts out to new highs this count is the one to watch.

Gold's long-term count seems to be panning out. Remember, the blue box zone is the minimum target area for wave (C) of [B].

Long term yield retest of the breakout?

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2019

The count I am primarily tracking is presented below.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 June 2019

Sorry was on vacation, haven't posted for  awhile. It seems to me that the market has been in an extended effort to make new highs. However, resistance is formidable. I was playing around with some wave counts and this is the one of the interesting ones that stood out.

From a support/resistance standpoint it makes sense. The final triangle would be the stored energy needed to finally push over to a higher high. However the "thrust" may be short lived.

We'll see. Squiggles do not lend itself to anything more definitive at the moment.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 May 2019

Still the primary count. Time-wise the target box keeps moving but the general form and structure remains the same.

Monday, May 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2019

Things are developing finally

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 May 2019

Finally something interesting. My chart from 2 weeks ago. Timing took longer but lets see how it plays out:

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 April 2019

Market keeps pushing for a new high which is the primary count overall and has been for quite some time.

How it gets there is the question.

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 April 2019

There is no great squiggle count for now so I can only emphasize the overall count in that a new high will eventually be made.
This still might be the best squiggle count in that we are due for a huge pullback. Maybe a "Sell in May, and go away?" type selloff or at least a muted one.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 April 2019

Not a whole lot of movement within the last week. The count remains the same.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 April 2019

Still looking at a possible expanding Minor 2 flat tracing out. Due for a big pullback.

Monday, April 1, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 Apr 2019

The squiggle count is muddled so we can zoom back on the overall primary count. The primary count is that eventually new highs will occur.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March 2019

Our primary count is below. If it is correct, we have likely seen the top of wave [b] of Minor blue 2
Squiggles supports this. Things have gotten very choppy which indicates exhaustion in the near term.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 March 2019

Things are not easy to count at the moment. Best count is that Minor 2 is forming some kind of flat/expanded flat or something that will evolve in a more
complex manner soon to come.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 March 2019

Primary count is that Minor wave 1 has topped and pullback for Minor 2 has begun.
Overall count:
And in log scale, you can better see the long term wave relationships and channels. The above weekly chart appears to have grossly weird wave structures but log scale smooths things out.
Another log scale chart. Note how the peaks of wave labels (1) and (3) and then (2) and (4) form a nice elliott wave channel.

Monday, March 4, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March 2019

We will call today's high the top of Minor 1 of (5). Looking for a significant pullback for Minor 2 to develop.

Monday, February 25, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 February 2019

Sorry for not posting lately but was on vacation. I'm back now.

However the wave structure has not rvealed itself overall yet.

On the weekly scale, we haven't yet had any kind of pullback we can call blue Minor 2  up
And the short term is just as muddled. Imminent sharp pullback for Minor 2 of (5) or do we just go straight to (5)?   In either case, we are calling for a new top its just a matter of the wave count in how we get there.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 February 2019

Forecast is still that a sharp bearish retrace to Blue Minor 2 down is just around the corner, perhaps tomorrow will begin that process.
Again, the overall primary long-term count:

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 February 2019

Minor 1 up does not appear to be over yet.

Friday, February 8, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 February 2019

Primary count is that Minor 1 up may have topped. Looking for a significant pullback for blue Minor 2.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 January 2019

Our shorter term chart panned out and we had the breakout higher. There are enough minimum waves in place to form Minor blue 1. Then a significant drop for Minor blue 2.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 January 2019

Not much to report on.
Shorter term we are probably looking for the top of Blue Minor 1 before a significant pullback for Blue Minor 2.

Monday, January 21, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 January 2019

Primary count in the long run posted below. Things are getting stretched to the upside so we could be due for a huge down day.
As has been noted by many including Elliott Wave International, a strong breadth thrust has occurred.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 January 2019

As was posted, the wave count has problems for the bearish overall case. Waves 1 and 4 overlap and the proposed wave 3 down has ugly internal structures for a supposed impulse wave. This need not be bothered too much as long as we get one more push down very soon to a lower low to create an overall 5 wave impulse verifying that the overall direction is now down for the longer term. However, the market has yet to cooperate for the bearish overall count.
So what would the overall count be since the 2009 low if we had eventual higher market highs? I present the count below. This still is a valid count (and in some ways a better count than with the market top occurring in 2018) and follows all the rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory. Note the alternation between corresponding corrective waves:

Waves 2 and 4 (blue) of (1) alternate in form from zig-zag to flat.
Waves (2) and (4) (red) alternate in form from flat to zig-zag.
Waves 2 and 4 (blue) of (3) (red) alternate in form from flat to zig-zag.
Waves [ii] and [iv] (green) of 5 of (3) alternate in form from flat to triangle.
Bottom line: We need a market downturn very fast to lower lows for the bearish case to bear fruit as presented in the top chart. Unless and until that happens we must be vigilant for a bullish count toward higher highs presented in the lower chart.