Elliott Wave Intraday Update ~ 29 December 2020

These 3 charts seemed "aligned". Wilshire, DOW, Apple. Will 2020 end on an all-time high on the 31st?  Its a cruel joke but the counts seem aligned to do just that.

Yet, VIX still refuses to go sub-20 as I had predicted many months ago. Permanent higher state of agitation.

The top alternate is that the market chugs a bit higher, then has a very sharp selloff in wave [iv] of 5 and then rallies again near Inauguration Day on the 20th. In this scenario, Trump gets the final (for all intents and purposes) all-time high of the stock market on his last day as President. Then the old, crusty, degenerate, and senile Biden (NMP) will reside over the greatest stock market collapse ever. It seems fitting. 

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 December 2020

A few variations. Apple is probably the strongest count telling the overall market story. When it tops, the market likely tops as well.

Overall, the Wilshire count below may be the correct count. The theme being that Trump's last day in office on the 19th of January may be the very final all-time high in the stock market. Just a guess based on the structures.

Which means we might go to here.....adjusted the channel lines on the Wilshire weekly. Its pointing to higher prices hitting the upper channel line.

The DJIA count has room for another small pop. Other than that, I'm running out of ideas for this count. That big open gap up from early November is still sticking out like a sore thumb.

Or maybe something like this.  Maybe we don't run all the ay until Inauguration Day. We'll see.

CPCE. Just wow.

And even the CPC is just wow.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 December 2020

 Wow, just wow. I am amazed at how the extreme market distortions just keep getting more extreme.  The NASDAQ has a nice looking count. There are enough waves in place....

Never thought the CPCE 90 day Moving Average would reach my "extreme" level but it has. Note how the 10 day MA has curled higher. This might be the trigger for total market collapse.

30 day has plunged way below the extreme level. Probably a record.

Possible count. It may have topped and the retrace was a small wave ii. We'll see come Monday.

Another variation.

Still can't figure out the DOW. But the best interpretation is that it is an ending move since its lurching higher rather than lower.

APPLE. Might be the key to the whole shebang...

30 year yield

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 December 2020

The election fraud was massive. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1341600130504519681

The social mood contract keeping this country together has been broken. You are all walking through a nightmare and most don't even know it. The forces of evil have become brazen, the lies and fraud are brazen, we have only one man seemingly standing up to it all. Trump did win in a landslide. Many wish it not to be true. Many on the  left   cowardly and/or intellectually lazy side comfort their brains in the lies repeated by all the captured institutions and repeat the lies ad nauseum.

And the guy who couldn't get 6 people to a rally, didn't come out of his basement, who clearly shows signs of dementia, an old white man pervert, a 48 year politician who failed miserably in 2 previous presidential bids, supposedly won with a record 80 million votes! We are supposed to believe (and swallow) that lie and be silenced??

We are now worse than Venezuela. We have our own "Chavez" and "Maduro" moment (by machines designed by those very regimes no less!), and can see clearly what a shithole that country has become. That is what they have in mind for America too. Those who wish to partake in their version of America must submit to the corruption, those who do not, will have to kill their dogs so as not to go hungry. That is their plan. They have captured all institutions, time is running out.

RESIST IT ALL TO HELL!! How many people will declare that Biden is not my President?? (sound familiar?)

But it happened. Fraud has always existed in elections since the Tammany Hall days and prior to even that. But never has it been so brazenly and massively flaunted in the electronic age as we have now. Never has it been so historic. Hundreds of witnesses signing an oath under perjury are willing to give testimony (and have) to it all. Dozens of cameras have captured it all. The thoroughly cowed, corrupted and intimidated court system is unwilling to even hear the evidence, including the Supreme Court.  They have openly admitted they are afraid of violence! The politicians (on both sides) are contemptible.  You can see it in the mere pittance of $600 given to Americans after they have forcibly destroyed the country in insane lockdowns.

And of course this has everything to do with Elliott Wave Theory!  In 2000, probably the year that "true" social mood peak occurred - due to the upward alignment at Intermediate, Primary, Cycle, Supercycle, and Grand Supercyle wave degrees - things were "kumbaya" in spirit even after the contested election! The 2000 contested election looks like child's play compared to now. The Supreme Court then was willing to step in and say no! And it wasn't even a "conservative" court!

But now in the great turning of social mood at Grand Supercycle degree we can see that the price top of the DJIA at 30,000 does not match the true social mood peak in 2000 even though the DJIA is many thousands of points higher. Yes mood is still elevated, but the Grand Supercycle social mood arc has flattened for 20 years and is starting to swing lower. The Supercycle arc of mood has flattened. Only the Cycle, Primary and lower wave degrees has kept things afloat. When the weight of the higher degree arcs start aligning with the eventually down turning lower wave degrees of Cycle, Primary, and Intermediate degree, total market collapse will soon follow. The arcs of social mood will all be additive to each other on the downside as much as they were on the upside!

THE COUNTS:

The squiggle counts are all just variables in the larger count. Look, the ALL-TIME highs have already been accomplished over and over again this year, we are merely dressing up each potential variable count - so don't get caught up in any bullshit beyond that.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 December 2020

Sooner or later the pattern will resolve itself, but we must be patient. We have numerous squiggle options, I have been posting the top options.

This is the option that supposes the market has some gyrations until actual Inauguration Day on 20th of January 2021.

From a further view:

Sometimes its easier to just look at the top stock in the world and if it has a clear count, then go with it and assume the market will hold up overall to support it. Apple may have a very clear count.

Last night I suggested Apple may be breaking upwards in wave (iii) of [iii] and prices today supports that count.

As far as Apple's squiggles, we'll go with this and see how it plays out. I had a good run counting to the early September peak but obviously the overall market (and Apple) has held up well.  The best option is that a Minor 4 triangle has traced out since then and now it is breaking out to new all-time highs.

I'm going to use Apple as my overall market proxy (as I had done much in the summer) since so many other indexes can be interpreted in many ways. When the Apple finally goes rotten (it will) so will the overall market.

10 year treasury price. Kind of dribbling lower. Kind of like my Lockheed stock shown the other night.

TESLA. Ultimately its matured wave count will betray them.  Can we really generate any more excitement in this stock? Really? Electric cars suck! Again, the reason the overlords push them on us is so they can better control us. They couldn't give a rat's ass about the environment as electric cars are an overall net polluter versus a simple gas powered engine.

But the more instructive point is that Tesla has already had its Minor 4 "triangle moment". And the wave evidence favors a completed pattern (or nearly so) rather than not.  

And what to make of the Industrials? An upward wedge may be signifying an ending diagonal triangle. Its gone on quite a while. The Transports too seem to be sluggishly overlapping and may also be sporting an ED pattern.

Possible INDU count. 

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 December 2020

 Our top two squiggle count options haven't really changed so much despite today's early downdraft.

Could be that wave (iv) of [v] had to alternate from wave (i) of [v] and thus traced an upward flat. This implies the final squiggles are now here. (Unless last week's high was the high)

The other top squiggle count is that the market will last into January 2021, likely around Inauguration day.

Apple's chart is reason to believe the count will last into January because it hasn't yet decisively made the break higher in what could be wave (iii) of [iii]. Ultimately we are looking for a new all-time high to finish the pattern.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 December 2020

Quad witching is behind us and we are entering the holiday period this coming Monday. Trading is typically lighter. Crashes usually don't happen in this time period but 2020 has been a different kind of year so I wouldn't bet against it. 

Yet we still have valid counts for the market trudging onward through the new year.  I have no preference only to say that when the final wave is in place, we are setup for a historic market crash that will be degrees higher than what occurred in March 2020.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 December 2020

Our top 2 count variations are still chugging along. And to be honest, I have no preference on how things will play out. Things usually don't crash during the holidays but January is always a different story.

Viewed from farther out showing both count variations. Wave 5 is so much longer in time compared to everything else. Its almost as if the market has slowed down and stretched itself out. Which maybe it has. In other words, its levitating and swimming in so much bullshit that the ultimate reversal that is coming will be epic and make the march plunge look like child's play. 

We don't know what will be the "news" at the time it happens but things will be blamed on it. Perhaps the news will be that Joe B. will not be President due to his horrible family corruption and/or deteriorating health. Hey, its not me saying this, its the New York Times! (ah yes, they want him removed as soon as possible - he is the true Manchurian candidate)

The crash is coming and it will be historic.

Weekly is almost finally in RSI "overbought" condition. I suspect it will get to 70+ yet with the telltale divergence we often see associated with wave (3) and (5) labels.Another reason to suspect the market will remain elevated through the New Year is Apple seems to be on the move to completing its wave pattern which probably needs more time.

Tesla is also spasming to its all-time peak

And the VIX still refuses to trade sub-20. A state of 20+ agitation. I predicted that back in June and so far that has proved correct.  I would be very surprised if the VIX traded below 20 for any serious length of time as it had many years prior to the February 2020 peak.

This alone, suggests and shows how social mood is changing in a major way.

NYSE Breadth chart. Again, likely extreme, abnormal behavior.

Lockheed. My proxy chart for all the "white" collar, government-related jobs that have largely been unaffected (not really any layoffs)  by the events of 2020. However the stock seems to be struggling and is suggesting otherwise. 

Yesterday's CPCE 180 day moving average. I would say when we see this finally bottom and turn up a tick is when to get the hell out of stocks for sure.

In fact, when the 30 day moving average ticks up will likely be a better trigger. The 10 day has already done so but this is yesterday's data. New data doesn't come out for me until much later.

Lemmings! LOL!

And what to make of the DJIA? The best count is that it is in a historic ending diagonal triangle of some sort (rising bearish wedge) and we have to be patient in not labeling things (and thus locking yourself into an untenable count) too early. Elliott Wave International has the same pattern but perhaps is not as flexible as I am in the substructure labeling. 

The rule of thumb in any triangle labeling is we tend to rush things.  This chart does suggest that the market high is almost upon us and that expecting it to hold up through January may be unrealistic no matter the Apple count, or the Wilshire variations.

I mean just look at the CPCE charts above, dudes, we are in unchartered territory yet the story will remain the same nonetheless.

Just look at Junk!