Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 December 2020

 The Wilshire has produced a nice trendline where waves [i], [iii] and [v] may be connecting on.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 November 2020

We'll start out with the composite ratios chart. This data comes in late for me which is why I usually don't post it until next update. Look at the ratio extremes produced on Friday and today was a very heavy volume day. Again, my take is this is extremely abnormal and is caused by the trading algorithms going haywire. In short this is not healthy at all.

If I was going to count the Composite it would look similar to the Wilshire I suppose. Do we have a stealth ending diagonal triangle going on? 

Switching to the Wilshire, we'll assume we have only reached wave (i) of [v] of 5. Today's low would count as wave (ii) and thus another surge in wave (iii) would be next. There are however enough squiggles in place to consider the count complete. 

The count is very satisfactory. 

GDOW is stretched very thin.

VIX finally dipped sub-20 and the gap is nearly closed.

Tesla being added to the S&P 500 finally. Could it signal a top? Again, there are enough squiggles in place to consider it complete or nearly so.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 November 2020

Obviously my last post elicited a lot of reaction in my email. I don't want to be a political (nor religious) blog, that's not what I'm about. I do however think the fraudulent election very much ties into the stock market, wave counting, social mood, and Grand Supercycle peaks. Therefore I would be a hypocrite not mentioning it at all. After all "social mood commentary" is still a part of this blog.

I could link to dozens of things showing the massive fraudulent evidence and not media shoutdowns, but like I said, I am not here to persuade you on politics nor are you as likely persuade me otherwise and that Trump is some kind of "Russian Stooge". I learned a long time ago you can rarely change the mind of a person, for each lives in his own world, and that's not what this blog is about. People come to truth on their own. One by one for their own reasons.  There truly is "Madness in Crowds". That's social mood theory and its what allows tyrannies to flourish in every century in many places, over and over.

I will however link to just one article that probably surmises how I feel if you want to know

Here is the key text in that article which relates to social mood I found spot-on:

"The argument would be that civil unrest must be avoided at all costs and that it is preferable to turn a blind eye to electoral theft than to preside over the fracturing of the nation and the abrogation of the civil contract. The argument, of course, would be disingenuous, self-serving and cowardly, the ultimate sophistry. For the nation is already fractured, the civil contract has effectively ceased to exist, and the corruption has gone so deep that, if it is not met head-on and scoured clean, there would be no nation remaining whose civil character could be assumed to exist. The electoral malady would have been fatal."

And before you think I'm a crank one recent poll has 75% Republican's and 30% Democrats acknowledging the cheating gave Biden the win.  That's 105% of all voters - a majority. I can't find you that poll (they buried it of course) but here is one from September.  Key takeaway:

But concerns about cheating in vote counting were prevalent in both parties. A sizable majority of both Trump (75 percent) and Biden supporters (60 percent) are concerned about the threat of cheating by election officials. 

And why is that? Its because we are not dumb! The social contract of this country has already been broken.

Truth be told I did not vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 primaries. I have a simple viewpoint on politicians and some of you have figured this out over the years: I will support any candidate that is a champion of the American Bill of Rights.  I wasn't sure about 2016 so Trump was not my choice in the primary. But I can tell you over the last 4 years he has proved beyond a doubt a champion for the Bill of Rights. 

And everything that is going on in 2020 has made it crystal clear that the Democrats are against this, and for chaos. Releasing violent criminals from jail and supporting anarchy, looting and destroying the social fabric of our cities is proof enough.  80 million Americans noticed too! (yes notice the total - they literally cancelled Trump votes by the millions) The draconian lockdowns mostly by Democratic governors are appalling. There are many Republicans that roll over and do nothing and even impose their own power trip "decrees". We have noticed.

Covid "checkpoints" are nothing about the virus and everything about tyranny. If your too dumb to see this or chooses to turn a blind eye, than I have no sympathy for what happens.

You may be surprised to know that I think most "Republicans" are despicable too for that matter. They aid and abet for the sake of their own little perceived piece of the pie. The graft and corruption of our great republic is complete. Tyranny follows. The massively fraudulent financial system perfectly reflects this.

The Bill of Rights is uniquely American. Many foreigners wrote me emails how they hate Trump etc, etc,. I don't think foreigners understand the Bill of Rights. Indeed I don't think many Americans understand it either. And that is by design. 

And by all indications Trump was the only one to support the Bill of Rights. I'm including all Democrats and a vast swath of Republican politicians, save a few.

I'll tell you what. Here is a prediction for you and you let me know in a year if I'm wrong:

If Democrats gain the Senate (and thus all 3 branches of government) here is what will happen:

1. They will eliminate the Senate filibuster. (gone by April)

2. Enact every law they can to curb the Bill of Rights; "Hate" speech laws (anti free speech), gun control laws, anti-religious laws, freedom of assembly laws, election laws, online internet speech laws, etc, etc,

3. Propose to pass an "Election reform" bill that will ensure they are never challenged again in any election. 

I don't care if "Krusty the Clown" runs for election, If he or she is a champion of the Bill of Rights, he will get my vote. And that sums up my politics. I'm old school, I still believe in the Bill of Rights. If you happen to be on the other side of that equation and support anti-free speech laws, gun control, and think religion is poison, then well I say to you, you are my political opponent although I wish it not to be so. 

The American Revolution started when the British Redcoats marched to confiscate the gun stores in the countryside.  Many people don't realize that is what sparked the war. Try to take American's guns, and the real shooting starts. It will be no different in the 21st century than it was in the 18th. 

In the end, my firm belief is that if Democrats are in full control over the next four years they will be blamed for the complete financial collapse that is bound to happen.  If Trump somehow pulls it off, he will be blamed. Its a pyric victory for the Democrats.  I do think President Trump is very prescient by saying the "401Ks will take a beating" if Joe Biden is sworn in.

Its very curious Vegas refuses to pay out. Likely they will wait until the Electoral College vote is in. And the market is signaling that is likely the most important date and where the major Supercycle turn could happen. I used to think the November election was where it would turn but now I see I was wrong. But the time period around 14th December keep an eye on!

So enough of that. Here are some charts on where I think things stand:

Tesla. P/E ratio 1,170. Room to "grow" into that huh?

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 November 2020

God knows what is true and what is false. In the end all the liars and evil-doers will be banished. Those who believe in truth will live forever.  It's a simple message. And even in the ancient days where there was no exposure to a Christian God, how men and women conducted their lives was enough for judgment. 

If you murdered and lied and stole you were judged by God all the same. You were not exempt from God's laws just because you were ignorant of Him. Evil is evil no matter what the circumstance.

Donald Trump won the election in a landslide. Anyone with a lucid and logical mind and look at simple facts at what occurred would agree. 

The stock market is a reflection of the amount of fraud being perpetrated on the people.

All socialist/communist "elections" are a reflection of a massive fraud on the populace. Everyone knows this to be true.  

The fact that massive communist-style election fraud has finally reached the shores of the United States of America (the fraud happened in every election but now it has metastasized like a cancer.)

There is a complete loss of confidence in any election as a result. This is what happens in a country like Venezuela. Now it has happened in America. 

Some 60-90 million Americans know the truth and call out the fraud for what it is.

We are reaching the endgame. If Joe Biden is sworn is as president, you can bet that evil has won the day. For his "winning" the election was, and is, a complete fraud.

Why do I say this? Surely I am risking my blog for speaking truth. That is where we are in America today. Google already throttles my exposure on the internet.  They have done this since 2016. Zero Hedge dropped my link for no reason. 

All I can say is that truth is truth. Let the chips fall where they may. Everyone must answer to the Lord in the end. God knows the truth. He knows what resides in men's hearts.

The thing about social mood is that we "hide" in the waxing and waning of mood swings. We go to war because everyone else is going to war. 

We can escape and hide judgement from society, but we cannot escape judgement from God. He knows men's hearts.

Again, what does this have to do with Elliott waves Dan? Well, I ask you this simple question:

Why would an electronic voting system require an algorithm? Can't it just simply count the votes as required?

The same can be said for the stock market. Why are there algorithms dominating the supposedly "free" market?

The answers to all of these questions is because greed is greatest at the peak of social mood swings. And the greatest social mood swing peak at Grand Supercycle size is occurring!

We cannot escape judgement. The "free" market will not either. Because it never was a free market.  Yet it does reflect where we are.

We are at a point of "super greed" and  "in-your-face" gaslighting as a result. No one seems to care.

In the end, God makes things right. He had the wisdom to "throttle" us so we don't go to far in either direction. That is Elliott Wave theory in a nutshell. We are reaching the endgame of a Grand Supercycle peak. It actually is one long arc from the year 2000 rounding over the top very soon.  

The backside will not be well.

I have no fucking idea if this is the very "top' or not, but it counts well so what the heck.

Just close the fucking gap already! The fact that it refuses is telling.,

I expected a dip below this trendline and it may be happening,

Wow.

Wow, wow!

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 November 2020

 So we got the obligatory "DOW 30K" milestone out of the way.

As was suggested last night, the primary count has been tweaked and Minute [iv] traced a stealth ascending triangle. I had anticipated one small move lower to "(e)" but it turns out that can already be labeled as is. This means the "thrust" up is the final move of the market. However, since wave [iii] is not the shortest (and it shouldn't be), wave [v] of 5 is free to range as high as it requires.

15 minute squiggle count of proposed wave 5:

Weekly has burst out the top of the channel. A fitting way to end things!

A closer look at the weekly. I would expect the RSI to go above 70 (overbought).

GDOW new all-time high.

VIX. Again, I guess the computers will keep driving market prices higher until the VIX gap closes. If it does close, then perhaps the computers will unleash violently to the market downside. We are in unchartered territory.

Tesla continuing to climb and flesh out its wave count.  This is a textbook Elliott wave structure. 

I'll have more later. A lot of good data doesn't come in until later in the night, like breadth data, CPC, yield charts, etc.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 November 2020

Price action may be clarifying the short and medium term counts. After achieving a spike high last on Monday 9th (weekend after the media pronounced Biden the winner), prices have remained elevated. The primary count could be that the market is tracing a Minute ascending triangle wave [iv] of 5 that may closely correspond to the Electoral College Vote of 14 December. Once the final EC vote has been cast, (likely to end in a Biden win) then "all bets are off" so to speak. 

We are closely tracking this possibility. A fraudulent market ending on an all-time high on the culmination of a highly questionable election would be a fitting ending of things. I just don't know how it can end more perfectly.

Wave-wise this count works well in that Minor 4 is not so long-winded. And I changed minor 2 as an expanded flat which it probably is if you take a hard look at the squiggles. This would indicate alternation between waves 2 and 4. 

The only thing that doesn't work so well is the count from "4" to [i] of 5. However, its no worse than the larger count of (ii) of 3 to (iii) of 3 so I'm not going to quibble. We had a significant "breadth thrust" event during the proposed [i] of 5 anyways so it may be actually more appropriate to label it this way instead of wave [b] as we have been showing.

Fitting into the weekly count which is struggling with the upper channel trendline(s). But ultimately there could be a spasm of overthrow that ends it all.

Its probably no simpler than this VIX chart. When the lower VIX gap closes, then its "over". 

Tesla count has been fulfilled as a minimum. 

CPCE 6 month moving average. Just insane!

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 November 2020

 It would look best if the early November all-time high was the wave 5 marker. It has the right look.

Another possible variation I'm keeping an eye on.

But we'll go with this short term count and assume further pullback for wave [ii] of 5.

But something again is going on. The pipes are clogged again, pressure is building. We've had a sudden jump in the NASDAQ Composite ratios again. And its significant.

GDOW stretched quite thin.

Tesla made that new high as we had suggested earlier in the week after labeling the wave 4 triangle.

This is a beautiful wave pattern. Its grand and majestic! but doomed all the same... 

Zoomed in up close. Having a hard time trying to break above the upper channel line. This is why 5 would look good as having finished and we just haven't realized it yet. We'll likely know this week if that is true or not....

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 November 2020

Nasty little selloff at end of day. I suppose price action can be viewed in the context of the long term count from the 2009 low. The market is attempting to break out of the upper channel line. It has already had one little "overthrow" tantrum, and today you could say that the upper trendline rejected prices (for now at least).

Here is the same chart zoomed in.

Again, I am assuming the market holds up and has more work to do. If it collapses from here that would be just fine too as there are enough waves in place to consider the count complete.

If you'll note, the squiggles that I traced out during the summer are intact. Again, its how you label the structures and stitch them together is what makes your overall count. The hourly chart below seems the very best count based on all the squiggle work.  Instead of the early June high being "3" as had been labeled before it now is best labeled as (iii) of [iii] of 3. You'll note that (v) of [iii] finished higher than (iii) of [iii]. So it all works out well. Impulses are still impulses and correctives that are best labeled as some kind of wave two or four are still labeled as such.

One thing that is noticeable is that the first half of the structure achieved great price advances in short time. Now the opposite is happening...a stretched out wave pattern with Minor 4 lasting considerable time versus Minor 2.  Its like letting loose a slinky while holding it in your hand. The springs near your hand are coiled up and the end furthest away starts to elongate and then droop (or is it the other way around? LOL)

The elongation could imply the market is tiring. Again, the Breadth events are very unusual back-to-back-to-back.  Its like a drug-addled addict who, on the verge of collapse gets a boost of adrenaline from yet another dose of drugs.  Yet the effect of the final dose of drugs is merely temporary. Eventually he has a heart attack and dies a nasty death.

IF we get another breadth event - this time a second negative - I would view it as a very bearish development.

I really like this count and feel very good about where things are. Its only near the end of patterns that things truly come together which is of course the moment that everyone bails on EW theory and overall counts.   The market tries to disguise its structure as best it can since there are so many wave counters out there. 

But in the end, it still adheres to rules and guidelines it seems. I never did get my perfect "virgin space" at the middle of wave 3 but its close enough. And we didn't get our clear EW channel either. But neither is required, particularly since there are millions of eyes watching for just such developments.  The fact that the market hid its intentions (and it did it very well) doesn't mean in the end we won't get it right.

Now combine the weekly chart (1st chart above) and this one and you have a nearly completed picture of the count since the 2009 low. Its very exciting!

Tesla seems to be fulfilling its wave count. It requires a new high still though.

Nikkei finally closer to a Fib 61.8% retrace of its all-time peak. RSI pattern fits the wave structure count very well.

30 year yield went back to the underside of its channel.