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Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 May 2020

There are enough squiggles in place to consider wave (2) over for our primary count.  There may be one more push, but today's price action was bearish compared to yesterday.  The Wilshire squeaked out a new intraday high (along with the Nasdaq Composite) but the S&P, DJIA and NYSE and others didn't even match yesterday's intraday high. Breadth was negative today.
There could be another squiggle higher to complete the pattern, or it could be complete today.
DJIA. No new recover high just yet. Its a non-confirmation event so far with the other indices.
Yesterday's CPCE data! Wow extreme complacency considering we just had the biggest contraction ever and 30 million unemployed and debt exploding like megabombs all over the place. 
I discussed the alternate counts yesterday.  The top two alternate wave (2) counts supposes that they have a decent amount of time for (2) left to finish.  

And perhaps (2) does need more time. I don't think anyone is ready for a final collapse after a 50 year mega-credit run....Its up to social mood to determine when and where the market will go. People are happy things are opening up again, but we may be seeing the wave (2) peak as I suggested we would see (2) peak when we opened again as a country. Now reality will likely hit again in a big way. That big way would be (3) down....

The quickest alternate would be the B wave expanding triangle. After [e] of B, we would see a mega-thrust upwards to C.

But we just had a mega thrust upwards...not sure if the market has another in it that will beat the one we just had.  Plus the [d] counts well as a final impulse as per the 1 minute chart above.
The next alternate supposes that we have a wave [ii] pullback and then another strong advancing wave [iii] of C of (2). Again, all this will take a lot of time.  Wave (2) has already had a lot of time. it certainly had a high price too.  In this scenario wave C would need some kind of decent Fibonacci relationship to wave A in price.
Potential Gold count is on the verge of [iii] higher.

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