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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 May 2020 [Update 9:40 EST]

UPDATE 9:40EST: Updated CPCE chart. Again a low reading but not lower than yesterday. Things I'm looking for are extreme readings (yes) and divergences (not yet) in the moving averages. The 3 day average is probably a tighter timing tool than the others. The 3 day MA is now at extreme complacency level but no divergence just yet.

However, the daily reading is a slight divergence. Higher market today but higher CPCE (although not but much LOL)
Primary count has the final waves of [c] of Z of (2) tracing out. There are enough waves in place to consider the count complete.  We do however have a possible target range of Wilshire 30,421 to 30,475 that would be an ideal stopping point.

Within zigzag Z wave [c] = [a] at 30,421. The Wilshire Daily 200 Simple Moving Average (200DMA) is 30,475.  So that would be our ideal range and it shows up as a thick target line in our chart.

Additionally, the 50 Week Moving Average of the Weekly Wilshire 5000 is currently 30,527. That would also be an appropriate price strike although it doesn't need to go that high because if the market drops in wave (3) the 50 weekly MA will curve down and it will look like a strike in the future (I think, I dunno I'm no math wiz just guessing this is how it will look).
A squiggle count would look like this to get us to the 30,421- 475 range. Its not perfect, but it places the 50% fib near the middle and if (v) = (i), then we will be at our target range.

This squiggle count probably depends if we get the gap up tomorrow.
Here is the daily again:
Another look
Our top alternate of the B of (2) expanding triangle I showed yesterday is probably out. Prices would have had to drop almost immediately but that hasn't happened.

So we'll switch to this top alternate. They KEY to this alternate count is that we are looking for wave [i] peak and wave [ii] pullback.  I'll show 2 versions of this chart is what I'm counting if prices move toward either or.

Version one has the market looking for the top of [i] - today may have been that top - and then a wave [ii] pullback (for instance a big gap down then gets closed in [iii] of C up.)
The other version is that we have already had wave [ii] pullback and we are about to get more upside surprises and prices run upwards without the mega pullbacks that we have been seeing.  It could even run in a tight channel. This count supposes that the market probably doesn't really care about closing any opening gap ups from here on to the top of C of (2).

Or not. But you get the gist either way.  The main thing about our alternate counts is that wave (2) has much more time left in it (and price).
Yesterday's CPCE reading! Wow.
And breadth still supports the idea this is merely wave (2) and not the start of a leg to a new all-time high. We did have a "breadth event" as I call it, and that supports the amazing rebound of (2).

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