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Saturday, June 13, 2020

Cycle and Supercycle Corrective Waves.

The largest scale count supposes that Grand Supercycle wave [III], starting from GS [II] from the 1770's, and the creation of the United States, is peaking in 2020.

This GS[III] peak implies that its subwaves have also all peaked. Hierarchal order in reverse is Supercycle (V), Cycle V, Primary [5], Intermediate (5), Minor [v], Minute [v], and so on.

Utilizing parabolas of different colors to represent the various wave (largest shown) degrees rolling over the peak to form correctives on the other side perfectly illustrates how they should all come together again at major lows. This is illustrated so that people understand in a picture of the level wave degrees that are being proposed.

It also illustrates that there are "up" mood waves within the larger higher negative waves as it should be.  But these waves only act as temporary relief.

Since there are so many corrective forms Grand Supercycle wave [IV] can take, (flat, triangle, zigzag, or some other combination) it is just a guess on how it will all play out.

One can suppose that Supercycle wave (a) may in fact turn out to be the most devastating wave. This would be a massive worldwide deflationary collapse dwarfing that of the 1929 - 1933 collapse.

One can also surmise this will take time. After all, Supercycle (V) took approximately 75 years to build.  However bear markets are usually much quicker than the proceeding bull wave.

The chart below is a worse case scenario in which Supercycle wave (a) - merely the first corrective wave of GS[IV] takes a Fibonacci 21 years to complete (2041), and takes the shape of a 5-3-5 cycle-sized zigzag to the price low of GS[IV].  Perhaps GS[IV] is a long-winding contracting triangle. This means Supercycle (a) will be the lowest in price.

THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, it merely shows how these huge waves can move in tandem at many layers and asscociated negative mood traits that can occur with such a large scale timing of negative mood trends.

At the very least, the DJIA will, at some point, likely go back to the 1970's prices in a runaway deflationary collapse. That would be at least DOW 1000.  It got to DOW 6500 only 11 years ago...people forget.

The chart below shows prices going back to a worse case scenario, the previous price range of subwave Supercycle (IV) which is the 1929 peak of 377 DOW.

Cycle a Fibonacci = 8 years, Cycle b =  5 years, cycle c = 8 years = 21 years Supercycle (a).

Perhaps this is the pattern but prices don't go so deep as depicted all around. We really don't know at this point.
 
Now if Supercycle wave (a) has other plans (not a sharp zigzag down), than the cycle wave corrective is free to do something else.

The version below merely shows cycle "a" being a 3 wave down affair. Still deep and destructive though.  But both versions imply cycle wave "a" as doing the most initial financial destruction. Again, we won't know where prices need to reach.   My guess is that cycle "a' will finish somewhere under the 2009 price low. Both charts are depicted in worse-case, speedy scenarios.

Again, I'll say this is only meant to show how waves connect and rollover highs, etc.
At some point, expect a possible hyperinflationary period to develop and the best guess would be cycle wave "b".

Bonds are worthless before the dollar. I know people have always thought the opposite that the dollar will be worthless, but people don't buy food in bonds, they use dollars. When you sell your bond, your getting dollars in return.

Once all the bonds have been crushed,  they'll be able to hyperinflate....once 1 set of papers are first worthless (bonds), then eventually people will come to realize the other set of paper (dollars) are worthless too.

I probably won't be posting charts like these anymore, social mood is turning negative already. Its fine to just post everyday squiggly charts. We'll connect them together in some form or fashion as needed.

I'd like to be positive. I actually hope we rally to new all-time highs this summer.


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