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Friday, June 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Intraday Waves - 5 June 2020

Pondering the squiggles again, added some notes.  If would be perfect if the market high was 31,759.

Back on 28 May I really, really liked this 5 wave structure (and declared wave (2) over as a result):
I propose that is still a nice 5 wave structure, just that it was merely [i] of C. Each wave one "kick" is long in length. I like this chart. I feel comfortable labeling it the top of C where C = .618 x A @ 31,759.

So far C = .613 x A at the intraday high of 31,721.
Top squiggle for where wave C = .618 A.
Wave C = .618 times the length of A @ 32,759.37. 

1/2 the length of wave A is not a true Fibonacci relationship. .618 x A is.  We'll see how the first hourly candle still fits the profile of an A-B-C.

Jobs report. LOL. Its like losing $10,000 in the casino, then the next day you win $1,000 and get very excited.  This seems to be a fitting cognitive dissonance moment to mark the top of wave (2).

[UPDATE: I can't label wave C the way I did, it would be in violation of EW rules.  I have another way to label, but its a moot point for now.]
Now we have perhaps have a true "overthrow" of the NASDAQ Composite.  If it falls back under hard watch out, it'll be leading the way down.
The NASDAQ 100 wedge. True overthrow.
If this is the count below in which the market is making all the various subwave "three and five" peaks, "four" dips, then at some point prices will likely revert back into the price range of Fib 78.6. We already have identified the blue virgin space. There could be a second one created temporarily, but if we are in 5 waves to (5), one of the wave 4 degrees will probably dip to 31,900 as a minimum.

This implies the big VIX gap up (and the Wilshire gap down) will eventually close, likely at the end of wave 3.

This also implies the NASDAQ wedges are false and the composite will surely reach 10,000.
So far the high is 31,721. 31,759 is where C = .618 x A

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