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Thursday, June 11, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 June 2020

This is an example of how social mood waves can correct on large scales. I am developing a system and incorporating parabolas into Elliott Wave Theory.  My guess is they govern minimum time in some way. The way I showed them last night had them curving inwards at the ends. I think as a rule they shouldn't curve in.  This ensures we won't experience too much social mood collapse all at once. It'll go faster on the way down yes, but nature has a way of governing how much and how fast probably based on something shown here.

I adjusted the 2009 low based on Robert Prechter's long term DOW/PPI chart that has been posted a few times  (see yesterday also).  Even after upscaling wave degrees prior to peak, it still implies likely only (3) down of Primary [A] has started. That's an educated guess that (5) Intermediate impulse waves down from the peak will form Primary [A] of cycle c.

I just winged it here for the sake of illustration purposesnot necessarily how things will or must play out. Corrective waves are free to take many forms and often complicated forms.
This is just an example of what kind of corrective might be playing out. We really have just guesses based on history. But the key point is if this count is more or less correct, social mood waves are all aligned downwards at most degrees of the largest trend

The primary count is that today was the "kickoff" day of Intermediate (3) down. Using the NYSE as a proxy for internal measures, today was a 90% down day all around.

The day ended at 93% volume to the downside.  95% declining issues versus advancers.

This beat the "kickoff" day of wave (1) down all around except barely in down volume. [Update]: However total volume was double the kickoff day (1).  Points loss of wave (3) kickoff was a Fibonacci 1.618 times wave (1) kickoff points loss (actually 1.71).

1,933 Kickoff (3)  Wilshire points loss versus 1,128 Kickoff (1). The day also finished under the 200 Daily Moving Average of the Wilshire.

This evidence strongly supports the idea of wave (3) having started.
 
Possible squiggle count.  Wave (3) is scheduled to be stronger than wave (1). The rebound wave twos may or may not be very big at all. As shown on last nights social mood chart, there are large amount of wave degrees pointing downward, or at the very least, not providing up pressure, at the moment.
Much bigger fear kickoff event also to be expected in (3) versus (1). Yeah, that VIX pattern was a falling wedge.
You know what? Yeah maybe that Composite wedge just had ridiculous overthrow. Back under the lower wedgeline.
Primary count. Looking for prices to eventually work lower than the peak of "A". This would officially rule out the 5 wave pattern to new all-time highs because wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1.
I'll have more when data comes in. Looking for the volume bars of the dailys from above charts.

Falling wedge in the CPCE suggests probably all 3 moving averages will go back above the red panic line.
This chart has a lot of room to correct back toward its all-time low at the March low. In other words, we are actually still on the bullish side of things and we are far from oversold...that's what happens when Robinhooder's run up every dead meat stock they can get their hands on. 


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