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Friday, June 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 June 2020

The primary count is that Intermediate wave (2) peaked and Thursday's 90% down day was the "kickoff" for Intermediate (3) down.
Today's low (or end of day yesterday) was likely Minute [i] down. When you have gaps up and down all over the place, sometimes the squiggles get muddled. But the bigger picture is that it appears to be an impulse pattern down from the high.
Another version which takes nicely into account that there was a 3 wave move from today's opening peak to negative territory is shown here. The move lower today would be wave (b) of [ii] in a 3-3-5 expanded flat.

Now we only need a big gap open Monday to solve that pattern. Huge up pressure this A.M which gave way to closing the gap up on the SPX in a 3 wave pattern lower. 
All session futures appears to be a 5 wave structure down
The top alternate is that Minor wave 4 has made its low. It has struck the trendline and bounced.  Technically, the market has lost a few support levels, but nothing major. The only big negative was the 90% down day crushed things a bit. That's hard to overcome right away and reverse. But the bullish count has no more room to give, wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, that is the rule.

Either way, Monday and Tuesday are key days.  Everyone sees the 4 waves. Everyone sees the channel lines.  The bull market is in danger. Losing the up channel is very bearish.

If this is 5 waves to a new high, It'll have to start right away and work on regaining lost ground immediately.  5 would likely be a rocket-shot with huge opening gaps up like today.
Conclusion: If I were to venture a guess, Monday the bulls run wild in the morning to a wave [ii] peak until its exhausted again and the bears take over in the afternoon beginning wave [iii] down. The 1800 point DOW drop Thursday likely got some attention. I don't know if there are enough Robinhooders to overcome the mom and poppers or the Goldman Sachers trying to get out of this very lunatic market.

No point in fretting about things too much, everything is setup once again either way.

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